2013 Predictions

In previous years I have forecasted how the MLB season would play out.  Some predictions were good (Giants / Tigers World Series last year) some not so much (A's / Rockies in 2011).  I've been questioned, mocked and ridiculed but that's not enough for me to stop.

Anyhow, this year, I'm going to take a slightly different approach. Instead of predicting exactly where each team will finish, I am going to go with a 75% confidence interval on number of wins per team.  I will also make some observations and a few unexpected specific predictions along the way. I welcome fans of any of these teams to mock me.  I had a preview on four teams last week, that I have repeated here along with the rest of the MLB teams, listed by division in the order that the teams finished last year:

AL East:

NY Yankees - Their infield DL payroll is higher than several teams' entire payroll. But unlike previous years where the Evil Empire (go ahead and sue me for copyright infringement) would just spend more money on buying some more all-stars, it looks like their opening day lineup may actually include long time Yankee legends such as Eduardo Nunez and Francisco Cervelli, as well as the newly added Vernon Wells. This team is really hard to project. If this wasn't the Yankees, they’d be reasonably expected to be a solid 70 win team. But I know better.

2013 Predictions Preview

In previous years I have forecasted how the MLB season would play out.  Some predictions were good (Giants / Tigers World Series last year) some not so much (A's / Rockies in 2011).  I've been questioned, mocked and ridiculed but that's not enough for me to stop.

Anyhow, this year, I'm going to take a slightly different approach. Instead of predicting exactly where each team will finish, I am going to go with a 75% confidence interval on number of wins per team.  I will post my expected win interval for each team along with some other observations before Opening Day.

Here is a preview of what you will see, revealing my predictions on a few teams:

NY Yankees - Their infield DL payroll is higher than several teams' entire payroll. But unlike previous years where the Evil Empire (go ahead and sue me for copyright infringement) would just spend more money on buying some more all-stars, it looks like their opening day lineup may actually include long time Yankee legends such as Eduardo Nunez, Francisco Cervelli and Juan Rivera, as well as the newly added Vernon Wells. This team is really hard to project. If this wasn't the Yankees, they’d be reasonably expected to be a solid 70 win team. But I know better. I have no confidence they are going to stick to their self imposed spending limits for next year. I'll believe it when I see it. My (not-so) bold prediction is that they are going to pay to acquire some much needed pieces and explain that they had to due to all the unexpected injuries. When they do and if all their stars come back healthy and produce, 95 wins is not out of the question. Of course, if they stubbornly refuse to spend and Cano gets injured 70 wins may be a stretch. I have narrowed my guess to a 10 game win interval between 77 and 87 wins.

Toronto - Everyone (north of the border anyways) has already anointed them World Series Champions.

Calgary teams have great experience in Florida

Redbirds playing at Al Lang Field in St. Petersburg
 (Photo courtesy of Bev Paulhus)

From March 8th to 12th, the Calgary PBF Redbirds Varsity(18U) and Junior Varsity (15U) teams had the opportunity to go to St. Petersburg. Not only did they get to play some good ball in the type of beautiful weather that is rarely never seen in Alberta winters, but there were several other activities that made this a memorable trip to Florida.  Each team had eight games scheduled into this extended long weekend, as well as the opportunity to meet with some former MLB players, and watch some Spring Training games.

On the first day, both teams played games at the Walter Fuller baseball complex, which is an excellent facility which has been used by the Tampa Bay Rays as their minor league spring training facility as well as Team Canada and has 5 MLB sized fields.

Post-game celebration

The day started with the Varsity team playing a morning game against the Ontario Terriers Gold team.. Behind the strong pitching of Nelson Lipszyc who threw a complete game against this potent lineup, Jake Derwent who scored twice, and a clutch 2 run pinch hit double in the 7th inning by Joel Campbell, the Redbirds were victorious in their first game, 4-2.
At the same time, the JV team was taking on the 16U Terriers Blue team.  The Calgary bats were  quiet, with Blake Enders driving in the only 2 runs in a 9-2 defeat.

Now pinch-running, #93....

... followed by awkward silence. Yes, the announcer at JetBlue Park also had no idea who the gentleman wearing a Red Sox #93 jersey was. This is one of many things you see in a spring training game that you don't see in meaningful games. To be fair to Kevin Millar's brother, Jensen, who served as the public address announcer this afternoon, I also had no idea who #93 is.  And I may not have a cool brother who was a key part of the first Red Sox Championship since World War I, but I'm fairly confident in my ability to name most Red Sox by sight.  And I don't just mean the starting 9 or just the ones on the 40 men roster, but most players in the high minors and key prospects at lower levels.

Still... when a player enters the game and is going to officially appear in a boxscore, you would think someone in the pressbox would have a cheat sheet with a list of names and numbers. This was only one of many moments that gave fans a chuckle at today's game.  Anyhow, I have confirmed that this was Portland centerfielder Shannon Wilkerson.

Other light moments from the game:

Notes from Red Sox Spring Training trip

Here's a review of day 1:

4:15 AM - depart home to go to Calgary airport.  For those of you that know me, you know how major of a commitment it is for me to get out of bed before 8 AM.  Very few things get me up before dawn. Baseball is on that shortlist. (Very short. It has exactly one item on it).

7:00 AM - Flight departs towards DFW (Dallas) where I'll catch a connection to RSW (Fort Myers)

6:00 PM - We arrive at RSW, after a pair of uneventful flights.
7:00 PM - after getting luggage and rental car check in at the hotel.

I check my phone, and see on my twitter feed that the Red Sox have an exhibition game against Puerto Rico's WBC team starting in 5 minutes.  Fenway South is about a 5 minute drive away.  Is the game sold out, will I be able to buy tix from a scalper?  I'm tired and hungry, but only one way to find out.

We head towards the game, and quickly buy a pair and make our way to our seats.  I'm going to be in Fort Myers less than 48 hours in total, but will get to watch the Red Sox play three times.  As Macklemore would say "This is ***ing Awesome!"