In previous years I have forecasted how the MLB season would play
out. Some predictions were good (Giants / Tigers World Series last year) some not so much (A's / Rockies in 2011). I've been questioned, mocked and ridiculed but that's not
enough for me to stop.
Anyhow, this year, I'm going to take a slightly different approach.
Instead of predicting exactly where each team will finish, I am going to go
with a 75% confidence interval on number of wins per team. I will also make some observations and a few
unexpected specific predictions along the way. I welcome fans of any of these
teams to mock me. I had a preview on four teams last week, that I have
repeated here along with the rest of the MLB teams, listed by division in the
order that the teams finished last year:
AL East:
NY Yankees - Their infield DL payroll is higher than
several teams' entire payroll. But unlike previous years where the Evil Empire
(go ahead and sue me for copyright infringement) would just spend more money on buying some more all-stars, it
looks like their opening day lineup may actually include long time Yankee
legends such as Eduardo Nunez and Francisco Cervelli, as well as the newly
added Vernon Wells. This team is really hard to project. If this wasn't the
Yankees, they’d be reasonably expected to be a solid 70 win team. But I know
better.
I have no confidence they are going to stick to their self-imposed
spending limits for next year. I'll believe it when I see it. My (not-so) bold
prediction is that they are going to pay to acquire some much needed pieces and
explain that they had to due to all the unexpected injuries. When they do and if
all their stars come back healthy and produce, 95 wins is not out of the
question. Of course, if they stubbornly refuse to spend and Cano gets injured
70 wins may be a stretch.
Baltimore - They are improved from last year but
won't repeat their 29-9 in 1 run games or 16-2 in extras record. No true
pitching aces, but lots of pitching depth. I expect them to finish close to
.500 but with a much higher likelihood of missing short by a lot then
overshooting by a lot.
Tampa Bay - Best team in division, but won't run
away with it.
Toronto - Everyone (north of the border anyways)
has already anointed them World Series Champions. Well, fellow
countrymen, prepare to be disappointed. Poor defense will lead to most of their
pitching rotation underperforming. Their bullpen is, um, below average.
They will act like they are in playoff contention, being buyers at the deadline
but will ultimately fall short at about 85 wins. Having said that, contrary to
Baltimore, their upside is much bigger then their downside.
Boston - A lot of depth in some places (bullpen,
catching, outfield), not enough in others. With injuries to Ortiz and Drew to
start the season, they will have among the league's best defenses with an
outfield of JBJ, Ellsbury and Victorino, and Iglesias at shortstop. This will
benefit their pitching staff. Injuries to Pedroia, Middlebrooks or one of their
key starting pitchers for an extended period of time may be insurmountable. But
if they stay healthy, there's enough depth to cover injuries elsewhere on the
field. If everything goes right this team could win the division with over 90
wins. Of course, this is also a team that won 69 wins last year and didn't
exactly make any blockbuster moves in the offseason. I expect them to be in
contention all season.
75% Confidence Interval Win Summary:
TB: 85-91
Boston: 83-89
Toronto: 82-95
NY: 77-87
Balt: 72-84
AL Central:
Detroit - They won't face much of a challenge for
the division. Going out on a limb and predicting that Justin Verlander will be
a very good pitcher. Torii Hunter, however, will not live up to expectations,
his best days being behind him.
Chicago White Sox - They will continue their every other
year pattern and regress down to 75 win territory.
Kansas City - Best team in division who doesn't have a
reigning triple-crown winner playing for them. Lots of games against weak
opponents will help them get to .500, but they will never seriously contend for
a wildcard spot and will be too far from Detroit.
Cleveland - Lots of changes starting with a new
manager. But early on they will fall out of contention, and players will start
focusing on their own stats, rather than trying to win. Tito will wonder what
he got himself into and will be thinking fondly of the good old chicken wing
and beer days of September 2011 (maybe not that last part). They will end up
well short of .500, and last place in this division.
Minnesota - Most improved team in the division. Will
battle KC for 2nd place.
75% Confidence Interval Win Summary:
Detroit: 90-99
Kansas City: 76-86
Minnesota: 75-85
Chicago White Sox: 74-85
Cleveland: 69-83
AL West:
Oakland - Was last year in a fluke? If so what
will you call back to back division crowns?
Texas Gone are Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli and Michael Young
and their 75 home runs. La plus ca change…. They should still win about 90.
LA Angels - Trout will not repeat his rookie
campaign. That's not such a tough prediction, because he had one of the best
seasons in recent history, matching Ted Williams' best season ever, with his
10.7 bWAR. And I'm also not predicting that he'll go the way of previous
ROYs such as Joe Charbonneau who was never heard from again, but I expect
merely a very good season from him. A 280/350/475 triple slash line which
the LA media will make a big deal about, but is actually very good putting him
in Top 20 range for OPS+. But not enough as again the Angels will miss
the playoffs, and Mike Scioscia's time in Disneyland might come to an end.
Seattle – Will benefit by playing Houston 19 times
and no longer being the worst team in the division. Added some potential power with Michael
Morse, Jason Bay and Kendry Morales. Their pitching is led by King Felix and
um, some other guys, I guess. A couple
of breaks and they could catch the Angels but don’t think they will.
Houston - In a division with Oakland, Texas, LA
and an improved Seattle, they may go entire months without a victory. It will
be a minor miracle if they avoid 100 losses. If I miss on my interval I fear it
will be because they undershoot the low end.
75% Confidence Interval Win Summary:
Oakland: 88-95
Texas: 84-92
LA Angels: 84-90
Seattle: 79 - 85
Houston: 50-64
Washington - This team won 98 games last year. They
won't have to wait until May to get Harper, and Strasburg can pitch all season.
They'll be lucky to win 90 this time.
Atlanta – Dale Murphy didn’t get elected to the Hall
of Fame in his last year of eligibility, Chipper Jones retired, Michael Bourn
left as a free agent and Brian McCann will start the year on the DL. Not the best offseason for Braves fans. They
did get BJ Upton, and Craig Kimbrel might be the best closer in the game but he
won’t have the opportunity to get a lot of saves. They’ll end up closer to .500 then they will
to 100 wins.
Philadelphia - This was an old team last year, and
their age showed as they stumbled to their worst record in over 10 seasons.
Ruben (what a great name!) Amaro Jr got the memo that he was to sign
young players and went out and got a couple of them. Unfortunately it seems
that there was a misunderstanding. The
young guys he signed were Michael and Delmon YOUNG. Michael is 36 years old,
and Delmon plays stellar defense... for a DH. Which the Phillies can't use. But
this team played great in the 2nd half last year when they were healthy. This
year's outcome hinges on Roy Halladay. If he's the Roy of old, he can anchor
their rotation to a division title. If he's not then they have some big shoes
to fill. I'm picking the Phillies to return to the top of the AL East.
NY Mets – As bad as they’ve been, it’s been 10 years
since they had a sub 70 win season. They
could break that streak this year. Jon
Niese is their opening day starter - ‘nuff said.
Miami- Last year's 69 win squad will be missing
Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, Anibal Sanchez and
more. When they added all those guys they took a step backwards, so by that
logic they should improve.
75% Confidence Interval Win Summary:
Philadelphia: 86-96
Washington: 85 - 94
Atlanta: 83-90
Miami: 70-75
NY Mets: 67-75
Cincinnati – Joey Votto and .400 will be mentioned
together in the same sentence a few times this summer. They don’t have the
Astros to beat up on, but the rest of the division is getting weaker too,
should run away with it again.
St. Louis- No wildcard is coming from either Central division this year. Could be sellers after the all-star break.
Milwaukee – I think signing Kyle Lohse might have
been the whole acquisition they made all winter, but that might be enough to
pass St. Louis.
Pittsburgh – Almost hit .500 last year. Is this the
year? It would be a lot easier if the Astros hadn’t left the division, but they
will break their 142 year losing streak(*)
Cubs – Will Theo bring a Championship to the
north side of Chicago in his 2nd year, like he did in Boston? If you believe there is even a chance, you
should probably be reading Bleacher Nation instead. Astros aren’t around to keep them out of last place.
(*) going by memory, I didn’t look it up
75% Confidence Interval Win Summary:
Cincinnati: 95-101
St. Louis: 79-83
Milwaukee: 83-88
Pittsburgh: 79-85
Cubs: 58 - 70
San Francisco – This team has won two Championships in
last three seasons. Tough to bet against them, with their starting pitching.
Their offense doesn’t scare anyone, but always seems to come through. They’ll hit some rough patches, but will be
on top again at the end of the season.
LA Dodgers – They’re spending money like a bunch of
drunken Steinbrenners. They have a ton of pitchers who all could be aces, and their
offense is much better than the Giants.
But they still won’t catch them.
Arizona – After winning 65 and then 94 games, they
split the difference and won 81 last year.
Which way will they go? They lost
Justin Upton, but added Cody Ross, Martin Prado and Brandon McCarthy among
others. They will improve, but not enough to win the division. Will be in the
wildcard hunt until the end.
San Diego – A quiet offseason, except they’ve moved the fences in at this
pitcher friendly ballpark. I suspect Padre pitchers can’t be happy about that,
because they were well below average in spite of that. They’ll battle Colorado and the Mets for the
worst pitching staff in the league.
Colorado – This team can score some runs. But they
can’t stop other teams from doing so. Not a winning recipe, but a couple of
good arms could push them towards respectability.
75% Confidence Interval Win Summary:
San Francisco 90-99
LA Dodgers 85-92
Arizona 84-90
San Diego 71-79
Colorado 66-74
I hate to do this, but will have to again…. Late October Parade
route will go down Pete Rose Way after the Joey Votto led Reds defeat the Joe
Maddon’s Ray in this year’s Fall Classic.
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