October 24, 2017

2017 Prediction Results

I wasn't the only one predicting an Astros Championship
Prior to the start of the season, I made some predictions on how each team would fare. I received some comments (mainly through my @baseballruben twitter), including a couple of compliments (one each from Houston and Tampa Bay fans – it’s easy to remember the accolades when there are so few), and lots of hate mail (a typical one was this Cubs fan who said “you SERIOUSLY don’t think they’ll win the pennant again?”).

Anyhow, now that the season is just about over time to see how those predictions played out.

There were some good ones: I correctly picked five of the division winners and had Houston winning the AL pennant. I had 7 teams that I picked their exact record within 1 game (Boston, Tampa, Baltimore, Kansas City, White Sox, Washington and Colorado). Speaking of the Rockies, I also said they would make the playoffs. While not predicting playoffs, I did say that the Diamondbacks would be much improved, and that the Twins would be one of the most improved teams in the league.

There were also some comically bad ones: I said not to count the Tigers out and had them winning the wildcard. They ended up in last place – by just one game – behind the Giants who I had winning the NL West. I had the Brewers dropping to 65 wins from the 73 they had in 2016, and they contended most of the season, ending up with 86 wins.

October 23, 2017

Red Sox win 2017 World Series!

Playoff bracket results
My previous OOTP update was at the end of the regular season, when the Red Sox had made the playoffs and would be facing the Houston Astros in the LDS. 

[Editor's note: If you haven't been following my OOTP simulation all season, here are the links to quickly get caught up, the rest of you can skip past this italicized part

Preseason - hired "Baseball Ruben" to manage team, much to Boston media's chagrin
All-Star break update - Overcame multiple injuries to be in first place at the break
End of Regular Season - Staved off competition to end in first place, and ready for the playoffs.]

On the playoff off nights, I've been playing the OOTP playoffs and just finished. As you could tell from this post's title, I ended up with a much better result than the guys who play their home games at Fenway Park.

LDS Sweep recap
First of all, I easily advanced to the ALCS.  The first two games were close, but Game 3 was a 10-1 laugher.  Christian Vazquez only started 2 of the games but was named MVP.

Meanwhile had to wait a few days to see who would win the Indians/Yankees Series.

Just like a couple of week ago, that Series went the full 5 games.  But in this one, Cleveland was victorious setting up a repeat of the 2007 ALCS showdown with them.

October 01, 2017

OOTP End of Season Results

Just finished playing the end of the regular season with my Red Sox OOTP team.  As you may remember in my last update, I had overcome same injuries and had the Sox in first place at mid-season, but with the Yankees very close behind.   The second half wasn't without its challenges.


With this game imitating real life, Pablo Sandoval was a problem at the hot corner.  He had a bad attitude, wouldn't accept a demotion, I was unable to trade him, so I acquired David Freese for 3rd base and released the Panda.




August 14, 2017

Why the Dodgers won't win the World Series (unless they do)

Will a champ be crowned at Chavez Ravine again?
At playoff time last year, with the Cubs being favored to win the 2016 Fall Classic, I wrote a post explaining why you shouldn't bet all your money on them.  The logic is simple: There are 10 playoff teams, eight of which get past the wildcard game and into a League Division Series.  If all teams were equally matched, they would each have a 1 in 8 (or 12.5%) chance of winning the World Series.  But the teams are not completely equally matched.

July 15, 2017

How 'bout them predictions?

I'm going to sound foolish when someone reads this in 6 months
Before the Red Sox had played more than handful of Spring Training games, I came up with a list of 10 bold predictions for them this year.  Let's see how they look shortly after the midway point of the season.

1. By middle of season Drew Pomeranz will be trusted as much as Porcello
>>> Well, it is the middle of the season.  Pomz is 9-4, 3.60 ERA, 9.8 K/9, Pretty Ricky is 4-11 4.75, 8.2.   I think it's fair to say this is a true statement.

2. We will get at least 10 starts from arms other than the six currently vying for rotation spots (Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright, Rodriguez)*
(*)I wrote the above before the Price news broke.  I hate being right already about too much pitching, but I’ll stick to the general statement that we’ll need more than 10 starts from pitchers other than the six who pitch the most games, whoever they may be.
>>> Our top 5 pitchers in terms of games started have been Porcello, Sale, Pomeranz, Rodriguez and Price.  Number 6 is Stephen Wright. So far, we've already had 11 starts from other guys (Johnson, Kendrick, Fister and Velazquez).  Half way through the season this prediction has already been met.