The Red Sox DO NOT need a closer

The "Closers"

I know, I know.

We’ve blown 247 saves just this past month. And at least 89 of those were with a multiple run lead in the 9th inning. Surely if we had a competent closer, such as any of the guys on the left, we’d at least be in striking distance of the Yankees, if not alone in first place.

Wait, some of those numbers above are incorrect you say? My bad, I didn’t look up the exact stats, I was just writing based on what this team’s “fans” whine about on twitter, message boards, sports radio and more. If the numbers aren’t quite accurate, they’re at least a good representation of what has happened this season.

We do have a lot of blown saves and have lost a lot of late inning leads – this fact I’m 100% certain on, without having to google the actual numbers.

But!

Getting. A. Good. Closer. Won’t. Help.

Don’t believe me? Let me explain why:

Undeserved Home Runs

In Thursday’s Spring Training game between Houston and the New York Mets, the Astros’ AJ Reed got credit for a home run on a ball that hit the warning track and rolled towards the fence. Yoenis Cespedes thought the ball was lodged under the fence and put up his hands indicating to the umpires that it should be a ground rule double.  And he just watched the ball as Reed circled the bases and got a home run. The umpire ran towards the ball, confirmed that it was in fact in play and the home run stood.  Click below to see this whole play:

On my Baseball Scoring site, I have a post explaining in detail why even though Cespedes just sat there and looked at the ball, the correct official scoring of this play is a home run and no error. Feel free to check it out, if you want.

I still don't understand how some people think this guy is a gold-glove outfielder. He has a strong arm, but takes absolutely awful routes to balls, and occasionally makes bone-headed plays.  Very glad he's not patrolling Fenway's outfield anymore.

For your entertainment purposes here are a bunch of other plays where batters got home runs, mainly due to fielder's misplays (but not errors!)

One week left of this 5 month hibernation!

Runners Passing on Bases

While umpiring a University of Calgary baseball game, I ran into an odd situation where a runner passed another runner on the base paths. This led to some confusion among the umpires, and I'm sure the official scorer may have had trouble scoring it correctly, too. How should this rare play be scored? Check out the details on the scoring blog

Runner Hit by Batted Ball

Well, you don't see that everyday. Twice!  Two games ended yesterday when a baserunner was hit with a batted ball with two outs in the 9th. Since this was interesting from an official scoring perspective I have all the details over at the scoring rules blog.  They say you can't predict ball, but you can be fairly certain that everyday you will see something on the diamond you haven't seen before.

Red Sox Hitters Beneficiaries of Generous Scorers?

(CJ Gunther/EPA)

We won the home opener, while recording 13 hits.  But several of those should have been scored as reached on error instead. This isn't a criticism of Boston's official scorer, as he is only following the practice of all other MLB scorers. But if a routine fly ball falls between two fielders, in my opinion (and that of the pitcher on the mound, no doubt) an error should be charged.  I talk more about it over at my Scoring Rules blog along with some accompanying videos.  Take a look.

Madison Bumgarner did NOT win Game 7

(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

And eventually, MLB got it right and fixed the scoring mistake.  I suspect their "mistake" was fully intentional.  Anyhow, before they fixed it I posted an article on my scoring blog.  Check it out if you were as confused as I was as to how he could get the win, when Jeremy Affeldt was the pitcher of record when they took the lead.

Postseason walkoff errors

After the Giants won Game 3 of the NLCS on a walkoff error, there was a lot of misinformation and confusion about the last postseason walkoff error. Most people didn't realize that just last year, the Middlebrooks obstruction play was, in fact, scored as an error.  So that inspired me to write a post on my Scoring Rules blog about how obstruction is scored.  At the end of that article, I also put a short description and link to all the postseason walk off error games. Thought that might be of interest to a wider audience, so I'm reposting that part of it here.

List of all postseason games ending in a walkoff error:

1914 WS Game 3 Braves 5 – A’s 4 – almost exactly 100 years ago, R1,R2 and the pitcher made a throwing error in the 12th on a bunt, trying to get the lead runner at 3rd, who scored on the play.  I tried to put up a video clip, but apparently whoever videotaped this game didn't have the foresight to upload it to Youtube.

Giancarlo Stanton strikesout after being removed from game

How did that happen? I explain it fully over at Baseball Scoring Rules.

Did you know? Catcher’s Interference. I DIDN’T!!!

Yours truly!  (not really, I'm way better looking!)

I wrote a short post on catcher’s interference (CI) some time ago, to educate people that reaching on CI does not impact your on base percentage (OBP).

Unfortunately, it has come to my attention (through an outstanding Sabermetrics course that I’m taking online) that in that post, my explanation of how to score it was… WRONG!  (sorry!)  No way to sugarcoat it, I’ve always been doing it incorreclty. I use my own spreadsheet system that takes the scoring from a game and compiles all individual
and team stats and I goofed on this one.*

It is true that Catcher’s Interference does not impact your on base percentage.  However, it DOES count as a plate appearance (PA). I always assumed that the formula for OBP was times on base (H+BB+HBP)  ÷ plate appearances.  So, if reaching on CI did not help nor hurt your OBP, then I assumed it did not count as a plate appearance.  Alas, it does.  The CORRECT formula for OBP is actually: (H+BB+HBP) ÷ (AB+BB+HBP+SF).  If a batter reaches on CI, it is counted as a PA, but the result of that appearance does not appear in any formula.

By the way, I still believe that intuitively it should be counted as a stat the same as a walk or hit by pitch. The counter argument is that you don’t know what would have happened without the CI. He may have been out anyways, so you don’t want to credit the batter for something he didn’t “earn”. But I think this counter argument can be used for HBP as well. Batters aren’t (usually) trying to earn getting on base by being beaned, but I digress.

* Note: Today there are several scoring apps available, so individuals don’t really need to know the rules that well, just mark it as a CI and the app will take care of calculating all the stats for you. Some of the best ones includes iScore as well as several others.

Ground Rule Double - NOT!

Will Venable's hit bouncing over the wall

Exciting extra inning game at Petco last night. The Royals scored a run in the top of the 12th to take a 5-4 lead. But in the bottom half, the Padres got runners on 2nd and 3rd with only one out.  And then Will Venable came to the plate....

He promptly hit a ball that split the outfielders and bounced over the wall as the excited home team announcers called it: "It's up the alley and the game will end on a ground rule double"

Here's the video: Walk off

Was it really a "ground rule" double?  No, no it was not.

Defensive Indifference... and why defenses should not be indifferent about them

Photo courtesy of Kelly O'Connor

editor's note: this is a repost of an item originally appearing in my Baseball Scoring Rules site.

Towards the end of my scoring rule article covering stolen bases, I make a mention of the situation that is scored as defensive indifference.   And if you read it, you can tell that I'm not extremely fond of this rule the way that it is written.  The rule says not to score a stolen base when "a runner advances solely because of the defensive team’s indifference to the runner’s advance".  It then adds some helpful comments to determine how to tell whether the team was in fact indifferent such as this nugget of wisdom telling you to consider "the totality of the circumstances, including the inning and score of the game, whether the defensive team had held the runner on base, whether the pitcher had made any pickoff attempts on that runner before the runner’s advance, whether the fielder ordinarily expected to cover the base to which the runner advanced made a move to cover such base, whether the defensive team had a legitimate strategic motive to not contest the runner’s advance or whether the defensive team might be trying impermissibly to deny the runner credit for a stolen base".  Ok, got that?  Yeah, neither do I.

Did you know? Catcher's Interference

(AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

editor's note: this is a repost of an item originally appearing in my Baseball Scoring Rules site.

How to calculate some common percentage records:

Batting Average = Hits ÷ At Bats

Slugging Percentage = Total Bases ÷ At Bats

Okay, fairly basic stuff.  But how do you account for a batter getting on base via Catcher's Interference (CI) ? Logically, it should add to their on base percentage (OBP).  It should be treated similarly to a walk or hit by pitch.  It doesn't affect your batting average, but should bump up your OBP.  Well, it doesn't.  Offically, if you get on base via CI, nothing happened.  It's not considered an at bat, nor a plate appearance.   Now you know. Sorry, Jacoby.

"Andre Ethier out at first". On a foul ball... uh?

editor's note: this is a repost of an item originally appearing in my Baseball Scoring Rules site.

I was watching the Dodgers-Marlins game the other night and a strange play happened.   Andre Ethier was at first base and Adrian Gonzalez at second with only 1 out.  It was an infield fly situation.   The situation that occurred, led to someone who was following Gameday on line to ask "Anyone know what just happened in the Dodgers game? Gameday just says "on field delay" then Andre Ethier Out. "  I'm sure anybody else who read a text based play-by-play would likely have the same question.   Here's what happened: