tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-40417791532048685222024-02-20T17:13:01.190-07:00Ruben's BaseballBaseball Reflections from Alberta. One fan's musings on baseball 2500 miles away from Fenway Park. Thoughts on the Red Sox as well as local Alberta players, and assorted other baseball observations.Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.comBlogger297125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-15088825065774963702022-12-08T11:20:00.004-07:002022-12-08T11:57:55.208-07:00It Breaks Your Heart. It is Designed to Break Your Heart.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0LgHM8NxO2LfpdPhVcTz4bsh9PmCB3K4e1BBim8_aiPsUSOJ743EDiNS2_jgKehr-fup6-MsnTl-tMcaM75VjSSK3msWTxetfwDwjrKDhXwv-Z_bOyXS4AAlWmQQTKsSIGUdbOUUT2_GCCYRNX8n8hwYh-SeTUSVyh1kPAZFEC8PXSCjcg3dQtgKR6Q/s1100/xander.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="1100" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0LgHM8NxO2LfpdPhVcTz4bsh9PmCB3K4e1BBim8_aiPsUSOJ743EDiNS2_jgKehr-fup6-MsnTl-tMcaM75VjSSK3msWTxetfwDwjrKDhXwv-Z_bOyXS4AAlWmQQTKsSIGUdbOUUT2_GCCYRNX8n8hwYh-SeTUSVyh1kPAZFEC8PXSCjcg3dQtgKR6Q/s320/xander.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops." <p></p><p>This is from one of Bart Giamatti's great baseball writings "The Green Fields of the Mind". The whole passage is talking about the abrupt end of a season (written on the final day of the 1977 season, the next verse starts "Today, October 2, a Sunday of rain and broken branches and leaf-clogged drains and slick streets, it stopped, and summer was gone").<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>But I always go back to the first two sentences:</p><p></p><blockquote>"<b>It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart</b>"</blockquote><p></p><p>This applies to so many other baseball related topics. A failed rally, a heart-breaking loss, a promising prospect getting injured.... or a beloved player moving on to another team.</p><p>I am writing this only a few short hours after news broke that despite the Red Sox being "close" to signing Xander Bogaerts, an abrupt announcement was made that he had signed a long term contract with the San Diego Padres. </p><p>Many others are currently writing reflections of what Xander meant to this team and sharing highlights of his time in Boston, others are debating the merits of his new contract and arguing what the Red Sox should or should not have done to keep him. Yet others are feverishly pontificating on what the next steps should be, whether another signing, a trade, or in-house options.</p><p>Enough people are writing about those topics, and I don't want to just add to that noise.</p><p>However, I noticed that Xander was the longest tenured member of the team, and wanted to look back and see throughout recent history, who has been with the Red Sox the longest, and what current player is likely to have that title in the near future.</p><p>Going back to the start of the championship era (*), I will look at the yearly rosters since 2004. </p><p>In 2004, our longest tenured player was Tim Wakefield who had been a member of the Red Sox since we signed him in 1995 and had already over 100 wins in a Sox uniform going into the season. Honorable mention goes to Ellis Burks who was also on our roster that season and had roots with Boston having been drafted in 1983 and playing there from 1987 to 1992.</p><p>From 2005 until his retirement after the 2011 season, Tim Wakefield continued to be our longest tenured player.</p><p>In 2012, that honor was passed on to David Ortiz, who we famously acquired after he was released by the Twins after the 2002 season. He kept that title until his retirement following the 2016 season.</p><p>In 2017, Dustin Pedroia who had been a September 2006 callup and mainstay of the team ever since, took over until his premature retirement in 2019. </p><p>And since 2020, Xander Bogaerts who came up just ahead of the September callups in 2013 but became an important part of that championship team has been the most tenured player. (Again, an honorable mention to Rich Hill who was on our 2021 squad and had been with the Red Sox on and off since 2010, but like Ellis Burks, not continuously). </p><p>So who is taking over this role as longest tenured member of the Red Sox? Right now there are only three players who were part of the recent 2018 Championship - Chris Sale, Matt Barnes, and Rafael Devers. Barnes has been here the longest, since a 2014 September callup.</p><p>In chart form, here is the list showing the players, and the number of seasons they had been on the roster coming into that season:</p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtPiq8nDgFVrQF8PL-vh9skAMINJhMkcaJpeeYGw7i6C_p2HIyLJQsWFJkeBZCMxamldq2L91a_TREmH7MqcAURuD-9tkSpVhziXzHoHpmprQtwApOu3RQbZzo8_MJbx5rUeYzbvgDAdNHxBbcMEnN3KHHM3039yQJWOXjhbGKj8JMfedO9_k6wgQZvA" style="clear: left; display: inline; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="338" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtPiq8nDgFVrQF8PL-vh9skAMINJhMkcaJpeeYGw7i6C_p2HIyLJQsWFJkeBZCMxamldq2L91a_TREmH7MqcAURuD-9tkSpVhziXzHoHpmprQtwApOu3RQbZzo8_MJbx5rUeYzbvgDAdNHxBbcMEnN3KHHM3039yQJWOXjhbGKj8JMfedO9_k6wgQZvA" width="133" /></a></p><p>(For completeness sake, the previous player prior to Wakefield was John Valentin in 2001, who had been with the team since 1992. Wakefield's run started with the 2002 season). </p><p><br />So, looking at the current lineup, who do you think will be on this list over the next few seasons? If Rafael Devers has his contract extended, it will likely be him until the end of his contract. But if he doesn't, as early as 2024 Verdugo and Arroyo may be the only players who were with the team in 2020, and they may not be fixtures for much longer than that. After that it may be Garrett Whitlock, or one of the guys who made their debut this season - Casas, Bello? What are your thoughts on who will be the longest tenured Red Sox player in 2027? Whoever it is, it will be a long time before we have guys that have been on the team for 10+ years again. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p><br /></p>
<hr />
(*) For those saying that this ownership group prioritizes profits over winning, note that the Red Sox have won 4 titles in the last 18 seasons, almost always being near the top of the league in payroll. Since World War II, the Yankees are the only other franchise to win 4 times in such a short span.Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-43168161701410676322022-08-05T12:16:00.001-06:002022-08-05T12:19:39.170-06:00Jack Morris revisited<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHp7IH5GIMefnlHJ8yO4BZ2TiPH897ImnGGC3nvnMUa_isNGqICfLRws8zCt1GoH8xobCknTLELhfwmEmoyzs23YZBzibaI7a8pSC_0wjt-HFkBorqSd_1ardARBwoaOGJfCUqAmCPJiamBUM23UuDduKiH3-OVnAONQJeyuvVmlv9g6jLBcPDLTstyQ/s373/jack%20hof.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="373" data-original-width="330" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHp7IH5GIMefnlHJ8yO4BZ2TiPH897ImnGGC3nvnMUa_isNGqICfLRws8zCt1GoH8xobCknTLELhfwmEmoyzs23YZBzibaI7a8pSC_0wjt-HFkBorqSd_1ardARBwoaOGJfCUqAmCPJiamBUM23UuDduKiH3-OVnAONQJeyuvVmlv9g6jLBcPDLTstyQ/w177-h200/jack%20hof.jpg" width="177" /></a>The following is an updated version of an article I first
wrote in 2013 and was published on an earlier version of the “<a href="https://thesportsdaily.com/category/hall-of-very-good/">Hall</a><a href="https://thesportsdaily.com/category/hall-of-very-good/" target="_blank"> of Very Good”</a> site.</div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://thesportsdaily.com/category/hall-of-very-good/"><o:p></o:p></a></p><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">Jack Morris is widely considered to be the greatest pitcher
of the 1980s, and no one will ever forget his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GlY7PoDs8E" target="_blank">Game 7 complete game in theWorld Series</a>. He was very durable and consistent. Yet, he was on the Hall
of Fame ballot for 15 years (2000 – 2014) without getting elected, and it took a
Veteran’s Committee (VC) vote in 2018 to get him inducted. Why is that?<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Well, first of all the “fact” that he was the best pitcher
of the 80s, is sort of an arbitrary measuring point. Would anyone know off the
top of their head, who was the best pitcher from 1974 to 1984? Or 1987 to 1997?
What is special about a 10 year period that starts at the beginning of a decade?
Mark Grace led the majors in hits throughout the 1990s. That didn’t stop voters
from dropping him off the ballot after his first year of eligibility. Besides,
he probably wasn’t even the best pitcher in his own division. A cursory look at
the stats will show that recognition should go to Toronto’s Dave Stieb (who
also dropped off the ballot after one year) and his decade ERA of 3.32 to
Morris’ 3.66. His contemporaries included Steve Carlton, Roger Clemens, Dwight
Gooden, Jim Palmer, Ron Guidry and others who just didn’t have the good fortune
to start their careers prior to 1980 and finish after 1989.</p>
Morris’ raw numbers may seem good looking back, because he pitched in a much lower scoring environment than we have now. He had a very respectable 3.90 career ERA, but
never once had a season below 3.00. In fact during his playing years 37 times
pitchers posted seasonal ERAs better than his career best. This is borne out by
his barely above average career ERA+ of 105. Even during his peak during the
“greatest pitcher of the decade” 1980s, his ERA+ was 109. For comparison sake,
that’s what Mark Gubicza, who pitched at that same time had for his whole
career. For those of you who don’t remember Gubicza, current pitchers Carlos
Carrasco or Alex Wood, (who are both decent starters who’ve received a few Cy
Young votes throughout their careers, but nobody is thinking Cooperstown for
them) beat that with their current career 110 ERA+. If you want to get more
sabermetric all of the following pitchers whose careers overlapped with Morris had
career WARs above 50 and have been excluded from the Hall of Fame: Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown, Luis Tiant, David
Cone, Tommy John, Bret Saberhagen, Chuck Finley, Jerry Koosman, Frank Tanana,
Kevin Appier and the aforementioned Dave Stieb. Jack Morris fell short of 40 for his career.<div><br /></div><div><div>Sidebar: Dave Stieb WAS much better than Morris and it wasn’t particularly close. This <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlviajJlctQ" target="_blank">four part DORKTOWN documentary</a> by Jon Bois is a must watch for any baseball fan. (He also makes the case against Jack Morris pretty persuasively here).</div><div><br /></div><div>To be fair, Morris was very consistent and threw a lot of innings. He threw over 200 innings 11 times, peaking at 293 in a season where he threw 20 complete games. This is unheard of in today’s game (the league leaders had three CGs last season, and only four pitchers threw over 200 topped by Zack Wheeler’s 213), but was quite common in the 1980s. During his playing years, 17 times a pitcher threw 20 or more CGs in one season. Over 80 times pitchers threw more than 230 innings while having an ERA lower than 3.00. Of course Mr. Morris never once accomplished this feat.</div><div><br /></div><div>With Morris' VC election, there are now 87 pitchers in the Hall of Fame. Of those, 86 had better career ERAs than Mr. Morris. </div><div><br /></div><div>The real question isn’t why it took so long to get into the Hall of Fame. It’s why did he at all? And it’s largely due to his heroics in pitching a Game 7 complete game shutout in the 1991 World Series for the Twins. Aside from that game, his playoff record is 6-4 with a 4.26 ERA, but that game was enough to give him the reputation of a great clutch post-season warrior who pitches to the score. And that game… well, suffice it to say that if Lonnie Smith doesn’t make a baserunning blunder, we’d all be talking about how Terry Pendleton was the hero of that Fall Classic instead.</div>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eM5kHJUBRSE" width="320" youtube-src-id="eM5kHJUBRSE"></iframe></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Without this mistake, Morris does not get a shutout or even a win in this game.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">Morris was a good pitcher. Maybe he does deserve induction into the Hall of Very Good. But he certainly shouldn’t be a Hall of Famer.</p></div>Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-12957770209485642542022-07-01T13:31:00.002-06:002022-07-01T13:31:48.280-06:00Happy Canada Day, Red Sox Fans<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDBCMxhQyLQ9wRIzxrGdA4VXDxvLqO2lK2hNBnV6QirZQr9bzB-1CMkWSKOXCcQtOhK7kJDtJG7AA4O40dxs2NT8LRNPu09WXUgat7aNvzQCdPOtZZDEE-40mAqxZrH6iVoOI0Nh10paxzXuaV1SyxmwXzygbMNEq3aHojqeXFLnWntONuHH1OYo3Pnw/s1988/canada%20red%20sox.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1004" data-original-width="1988" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDBCMxhQyLQ9wRIzxrGdA4VXDxvLqO2lK2hNBnV6QirZQr9bzB-1CMkWSKOXCcQtOhK7kJDtJG7AA4O40dxs2NT8LRNPu09WXUgat7aNvzQCdPOtZZDEE-40mAqxZrH6iVoOI0Nh10paxzXuaV1SyxmwXzygbMNEq3aHojqeXFLnWntONuHH1OYo3Pnw/s320/canada%20red%20sox.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />The Boston Red Sox have had a long history of Canadian born players who have had an impact on the franchise. This year's edition (as has been the case more often than not since 1990), no MLB team has more Canucks on their roster than this Amercian League team that plays home games in Boston. Here is a brief look at the Canadians who were fortunate to play home games at Fenway Park:<p></p><p>Prior to the 1920s, the following mainly forgettable names suited up for the Red Sox:<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: left;">Larry McLean<br />Win Kellum<br />Bunk Congalton<br />John O'Neill<br />Art McGovern<br />Yip Owens<br />Frank O'Rourke</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">These players were all from the Eastern part of Canada - Ontario and New Brunswick specifically - which made sense at a time where Chicago and St.Louis were considered long trips to the West in the major leagues. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">It wasn't until the late 1950s that another player from North of the 49th appeared for the Red Sox, as Ted Bowsfield (Vernon, BC), pitched from 1958 to 1960 until getting traded for the infamous Carroll Hardy (who is mainly known for pinch hitting for both Ted Williams and Carl Yasztremski).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Then in the mid 70s, we had a couple of pitchers, starting with Reggie Cleveland (Swift Current, SK) who pitched from 1974 to 1978, and future Hall of Famer, Fergie Jenkins (Chatam, ON) who was part of the 1976 and 1977 teams.</div><div style="text-align: left;">No Canadian players suited up for the Red Sox during the 1980s which were a <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2020/06/canadians-in-mlb.html" target="_blank">lean time for Canadians in the MLB</a> in general.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">And then in 1990, the Red Sox regularly started including Canadian players on the roster. </div><div style="text-align: left;">It started with a <a href="https://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2011/11/baseball-is-awesome-canadian-hurler.html" target="_blank">trade for my hometown's Mike Gardiner</a> (Sarnia, ON) in 1990, who played in Boston until being traded for all-star Ivan Calderon in 1992. In 1992, Peter Hoy (Brockville, ON) who had been drafted by us in 1988, made his debut and pitched a handful of innings in relief, while Paul Quantrill (London, ON) whom we had drafted in 1989 got the call up and appeared in almost 100 games for us until 1994. Of course, he is mainly know as a part of Red Sox history for giving up a walk off home run in game 4 of the 2004 ALCS to some guy named Ortiz. In 1995, we acquired Rheal Cormier (Moncton, NB), and Matt Stairs (Saint John, NB). In 1996, the Red Sox used their first round draft pick on Chris Reitsma (Calgary). He never did play for us, but I've included him here as we acquired Dante Bichette for him, and he is <a href="https://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2011/05/editors-note-i-wrote-article-on.html" target="_blank">from my current hometown</a>.</div><div style="text-align: left;">In 2004, we stole Adam Stern (London) from Atlanta in the Rule 5 draft, and he patrolled our outfield in 2005 and 2006 when not sidelined due to injuries, but his biggest contribution came in the WBC as he led Team Canada to an upset victory over USA <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUVhiXsgQS4" target="_blank">hitting an inside the park home run</a>, driving in 4 runs and making some highlight reel catches. </div><div style="text-align: left;">In 2006, we traded for George Kottaras (Scarborough, ON) who caught for us in 2008 and 2009, but the biggest gain in that trade was to be able to ship David Wells away.</div><div style="text-align: left;">On the 2007 trade deadline, we acquired Eric Gagne (Montreal) to bolster our bullpen. He did <a href="https://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2012/02/baseball-is-awesome-maligned-canadian.html" target="_blank">everything possible to keep us from winning</a> the division, but fortunately the Red Sox prevailed in spite of his best efforts, and he was used very sparingly in the postseason which helped us to win the World Series. At the next trade deadline, in 2008, we acquired Jason Bay (Trail, BC), for Manny, and he proceeded to <a href="https://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2011/12/baseball-is-awesome-its-december-25th.html" target="_blank">score the series walk-off run </a>against the Angels in the ALDS, and then was an all-star in 2009. Erik Bedard (Ottawa) was acquired at the 2011 trade deadline to help with the rotation down the stretch, in that infamous season where we ended up one game out of the postseason. In the 2012-13 offseason, we signed Ryan Dempster (Gibsons, BC), who had previosuly <a href="https://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2013/01/more-red-sox-alberta-connections.html" target="_blank">played for the Calgary Cannons</a> and became a key member of our starting rotation that went on to win the 2013 Word Series Championship. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">And of course, this season we have Nick Pivetta (Victoria, BC) who has been <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=pivetni01&year=2022&t=p#month_extra" target="_blank">dominant the last few weeks</a>, and are awaiting the debut of James Paxton (Richmond, BC) who is the only Canadian to throw a no-hitter in Canada.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">With all this rich history of Canadians playing for the Red Sox, I do feel very patriotic in supporting the Boston Red Sox!</div><p></p>Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-40360958297316672822021-02-01T22:07:00.006-07:002021-02-01T22:11:17.976-07:00Thank you, Mr. Pedroia<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhraUg88UBLXqMtYKaWu4_wEQyd3E1WUVDI4MqT6cmsLJValg9ikoy1R16gxmJ3Z7SY1S3NG04YzR81eHvMPjkEyiUyg1Ah2XMb-FukIp4YjQcPy8BCq0ITt46lrFcC3pu99sCHDsB36JPZ/s839/pedroia+twitter.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="472" data-original-width="839" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhraUg88UBLXqMtYKaWu4_wEQyd3E1WUVDI4MqT6cmsLJValg9ikoy1R16gxmJ3Z7SY1S3NG04YzR81eHvMPjkEyiUyg1Ah2XMb-FukIp4YjQcPy8BCq0ITt46lrFcC3pu99sCHDsB36JPZ/s320/pedroia+twitter.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;">With
Dustin Pedroia announcing his retirement, it was time I re-shared the story of
when I first met him. It was originally posted on a long-since defunct website that
I maintained to convince sportswriters why they should vote for Jim Rice to get
inducted into Cooperstown. But that
website was taken down about 10 years ago, so it this is a perfect time to retell
this, as many of my readers will be seeing it for the first time. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">T</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">his
story starts sometime in the winter of 2004, when while still basking in the afterglow
of a RED SOX WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP, our family decided that we would go to
Disneyland for 2005 spring break. </span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 107%;">The
plan was to leave Saturday morning, spend two days driving there (about a 2 500
km/1,500 mile trip from Calgary), get a five day multi park pass, and spend
the next weekend driving back home.</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Coincidentally
(honestly – we had decided on the trip before I found this out), the Red Sox
were going to play their last two spring training games in Phoenix against the
Diamondbacks at their home stadium on the Thursday and Friday of the week we
were planning on being in LA.</span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">Sorry,
I meant to say Anaheim.</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Or Los Angeles
of Anaheim. Or whatever it wants to call itself, but that’s a rant for a
different time. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">Meanwhile,
someone on the popular Red Sox message board </span><a href="https://www.sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php" style="font-family: inherit;" target="_blank">SoSH</a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> had organized a get together of
Red Sox fans from far and away at the Friday game. Things were coming together….I
asked my nine year old son if he was interested in going to that and missing a
couple of days of Disney, and he agreed that three days in Mickey Mouse land was
more than enough and having a side excursion to watch some baseball sounded like
fun.</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">It was settled then! We’d go to
Disneyland, and Thursday drive to Phoenix for the evening game, stay for Friday’s
matinee and meet up with the girls (his mom and sister who opted for the extra
two days of Disney) back in Anaheim Friday night. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">O</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">ur
vacation started as we left Calgary early morning (editor's note: not really that early) on Saturday,
and after two straight days of being on the road 12-14 hours arrived at our
hotel across from DisneyLand Sunday at about 10 PM. We then spent the next three
full days between DisneyLand and California Adventure Park. I don’t know how
much fun the rest of the family had, but I was exhausted. Thursday morning, me
and my son got up early and made the drive to Phoenix. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">I wanted to get there in plenty of time get
inside Bank One Ballpark (aka Chase Field) as soon as the gates open. After
all, the best part of spring training games is watching the batting practice! So,
after seven or so hours of driving, checking in to the hotel, and waiting in
line at the will call to get our tickets, we got inside the stadium.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7A9XDBM2Q3mToGXKu9Ggno5UHD3qRe9coD5tz1g7ErKHFAVfXbo-p1LE3dPyxEzHF4xN1HMUpDJOD6izIgBjQy341rklLWszlq9N2msR5pP10wMKyyCVO9VFB5TJpw_6sA8KgjLLFKOcB/s1340/pedroia.JPG" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="878" data-original-width="1340" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7A9XDBM2Q3mToGXKu9Ggno5UHD3qRe9coD5tz1g7ErKHFAVfXbo-p1LE3dPyxEzHF4xN1HMUpDJOD6izIgBjQy341rklLWszlq9N2msR5pP10wMKyyCVO9VFB5TJpw_6sA8KgjLLFKOcB/w320-h210/pedroia.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">First glimpse of this single A prospect</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: inherit;">We quickly realize that a lot of the regulars didn't make the trip, they went from Fort Myers straight to Boston. But my son likes following the prospects and we see our top ranked guy, Hanley Ramirez, as well as another player who had yet to play a game above A ball wearing jersey #77. </span><div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">We </span>then see some guys are signing autographs. We run towards
them, but before they get to us they wander away. My son is a little disappointed.
We settle in to watch the game… we’re both tired it’s been a long day and long
week so far. Uneventful game finishes, we head to the hotel and get there a little after
11 at night.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Next
day we get up and head to the ballpark right after breakfast, as it’s a 1 PM start. I could tell my son wasn't having a lot of fun. I suggested maybe we’d
get some autographs or catch a BP ball. We got there before the gates open and
made our way down to the field level to get a good view of the players warming
up. A few players were signing autographs and my son patiently waited but they
all left before getting to him. I then suggested
going behind the outfield wall to see if maybe we could catch a BP homerun
ball. While there we saw Dustin Pedroia signing autographs by the
right field line. We ran to get to him, and as were about a section away he had
finished signing for everyone who was there and started walking away. My son
yelled out "Dustin...!”. To my pleasant surprise, he stopped, turned
around and waited for us to get up to the front row. He then patiently waited
while my son went through his stack of cards to find the sole Pedroia card he
had. He then signed it, and I thanked him for waiting. The kid looked at me
straight in the eyes (we’re about the same height!), and said "No. Thank
YOU!". And he seemed very sincere
about it. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;">From
that point on all my son could do was talk about how excited he was that he
'met' Dustin and got his card signed. Thank you for that Mr. Pedroia. It made
the long trip back to LA after the game much more bearable. And also the 24
hours of driving back home over the next two days much easier with a happy kid
in the back seat rather than a disgruntled one who would have been disappointed
about cutting his Disneyland trip short. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">He made two fans for life that day.</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And
whenever I seem him being cocky, or doing the whole </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=12&v=DPvMOVFshyI&feature=youtu.be" style="font-family: inherit;">Laser
Show</a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> bit I know it’s just his public persona, and that he is a genuinely
humble guy. Thank you for the memories!</span></p></div>Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-22447815273309380752020-06-30T12:22:00.000-06:002020-06-30T14:52:51.075-06:00Canadians in the MLB<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCZlwVl6Fi5maI1iQ0hJBt5h8DaQuM-g0pXqk0RcRh05_FB5IEvzEI3exoopzYkFYFXOQd4Oga4o9ArSfim3VqcNlO5A4Y2Z5AucPF7wUZ4qtSgRupEWJrGqOqzE7zsck8B16vtf9Io_UQ/s1600/canada+mlb.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="628" data-original-width="1192" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCZlwVl6Fi5maI1iQ0hJBt5h8DaQuM-g0pXqk0RcRh05_FB5IEvzEI3exoopzYkFYFXOQd4Oga4o9ArSfim3VqcNlO5A4Y2Z5AucPF7wUZ4qtSgRupEWJrGqOqzE7zsck8B16vtf9Io_UQ/s400/canada+mlb.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
I saw this tweet, and it occurred to me how rare it was to see Canadians in the MLB in the 1980s<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OTD?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OTD</a> 47 years ago, the Houston Astros sign Canadian RHP Gordie Pladson (New Westminster, B.C.) as an amateur free agent.<br />
<br />
He pitched 20 games in parts of four seasons with the Astros from 1979 to 1982. <a href="https://t.co/nqzeIuf4CF">pic.twitter.com/nqzeIuf4CF</a></div>
— Kevin Glew (@coopincanada) <a href="https://twitter.com/coopincanada/status/1277999523785248773?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 30, 2020</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
So, I decided to take a look. I started in 1979, and these were the Canadian born players who were in the MLB:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jenkife01.shtml" target="_blank">Fergie Jenkins</a> - Hall of famer who retired in 1983, after a long career mainly with the Cubs and Rangers (and a pit stop in <span style="color: red;">Boston</span>)<br />
<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clevere01.shtml" target="_blank">Reggie Cleveland</a> - retired in 1981 - also one of the best Canadians to ever play for the <span style="color: red;">Red Sox</span><br />
<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/atkinbi01.shtml" target="_blank">Bill Atkinson </a>- pitched his last 10 games for the Expos in 1979<br />
<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mckayda01.shtml" target="_blank">Dave McKay </a>- was with the Blue Jays, and played until retiting in Oakland in1982<br />
<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puhlte01.shtml" target="_blank">Terry Puhl</a> - 1978 all star, who played with the Astros until 1990, before retiring in KC in 1991<br />
<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillejo01.shtml" target="_blank">John Hiller</a> - two time all star who played in Detroit his whole career, before retiring in 1980<br />
<br />
Along with the aforementioned <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pladsgo01.shtml" target="_blank">Gordie Pladson</a>, that's a total of seven. That's the most there would be until the 1990s.<br />
<br />
In 1980, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hodgspa01.shtml" target="_blank">Paul Hodgson </a>had a handful of at-bats for the Blue Jays, and with Atkinson having retired, that kept the total at seven.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
In 1981, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lisiri01.shtml" target="_blank">Rick Lisi</a> had a one month callup with the Rangers, and with Hiller retiring, now we were down to 6 Canadians who made an appearance in the MLB.<br />
<br />
In 1982, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frobedo01.shtml" target="_blank">Doug Frobel</a> made his debut with the Pirates. He'd end his career with the Expos in 1985. With Reggie Cleveland no longer playing, now there were only 5 Canadians.<br />
<br />
By 1983, McKay and Pladson were no longer playing, so there was only Jenkins, Puhl and Frobel left.<br />
<br />
In 1984 Jenkins had already retired, leaving just two Canadians on MLB rosters.<br />
<br />
In 1985, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccaski01.shtml" target="_blank">Kirk McCaskill</a> started a long career with the Angels. He'd end up playing until 1996 when he retired as a White Sox pitcher. Also, Edmonton's <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shipada01.shtml" target="_blank">Dave Shipanoff</a> pitched his only season for the Phillies, so the number of Canadians had doubled to four.<br />
<br />
This was shortlived, as there were no new Canadians in 1986, and with Frobel retiring, we were back down to two players again.<br />
<br />
In 1987, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duceyro01.shtml" target="_blank">Rob Ducey</a> made his debut with his hometown Blue Jays. He'd end up having a couple of stints in Toronto, before retiring as an Expo in 2001.<br />
<br />
In 1988, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsost01.shtml" target="_blank">Steve Wilson</a> had a September callup with the Rangers. He'd go on to pitch for the Cubs and Dodgers until 1993. We were back to four MLBers, and this number just kept increasing over the next few years.<br />
<br />
In 1989, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walkela01.shtml" target="_blank">Larry Walker </a>made his debut with the Expos. He'd end up joining Fergie Jenkins in Cooperstown, as the only Candians in the Baseball Hall of Fame, after a long career in Montreal, Colorado and St. Louis.<br />
<br />
Then in the 1990s, there was a large influx of Canadians who burst onto the scene. This included <a href="https://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2011/11/baseball-is-awesome-canadian-hurler.html" target="_blank">Mike Gardiner</a>, Rheal Cormier, Matt Stairs, Paul Quantrill, Rob Butler, Corey Koskie, Ryan Dempster, Eric Gagne, and many many more. In fact, I counted 28 Canadians who made their MLB debut that decade, including Mike Johnson from Edmonton, and Ryan Radmanovich from Calgary to highlight my province's contribution.<br />
<br />
With many current stars such as Calgary's Mike Soroka, Vlad Guerrro Jr., Tyler O'Neill, Joey Votto, James Paxton, and Cal Quantrill as main parts of their teams' rosters, I think it's safe to say we won't see a time when there are only two MLBers representing the maple leaf any time soon.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-921512021041996202020-06-30T10:57:00.000-06:002020-06-30T10:57:18.287-06:00Playing Pepper 2020<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqLJ_LhH0-UwcMvmansrjdcvlRCCyRBf86_7HZ2nCYQfvab2ce4hZD1NEL3paU-Ea-uyhwx-Sfc35hmWF0DzeUSt42QPcJnKveHS9VLMBkwGoVmWrp3bUIjio4ZylqTj8iLRAGj6ePI-np/s1600/Black-Pepper-Beanie.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="284" data-original-width="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqLJ_LhH0-UwcMvmansrjdcvlRCCyRBf86_7HZ2nCYQfvab2ce4hZD1NEL3paU-Ea-uyhwx-Sfc35hmWF0DzeUSt42QPcJnKveHS9VLMBkwGoVmWrp3bUIjio4ZylqTj8iLRAGj6ePI-np/s1600/Black-Pepper-Beanie.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Since I stole this logo, check out<br /> <a href="https://www.chilipeppersbaseball.com/">https://www.chilipeppersbaseball.com/</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Just realized that I didn't post this year's Playing Pepper Red Sox preview. For those of you who don't regularly follow me, this is an annual series hosted by <a href="http://www.cardsconclave.com/c70/" target="_blank">Cardinals blogger C70 at the bat</a> where he asks bloggers of all MLB teams to answer a few questions about the team they write about. You can see all the previews <a href="http://www.cardsconclave.com/series/playing-pepper-2020/" target="_blank">here</a>. I wrote this back in Feburary, and, well, a few things have changed since, so he will be doing a version 2.<br />
<br />
These are the questions I will be answering:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
1) Does the shortened season work for or against your team?<br />2) What are you most looking forward to seeing?<br />3) Do you believe the season will be fully completed? How about the playoffs?</blockquote>
I have some thoughts on these, but welcome any input from my readers. Comment here, or tweet at me here <a href="https://twitter.com/BaseballRuben">https://twitter.com/BaseballRuben</a> with your thoughts.<br />
<br />
For reference, these were the first set of questions and my answers:<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>1. Looking for a manager just weeks before spring training isn’t optimal. Will the Red</b><br />
<b>Sox be able to find a suitable replacement for Alex Cora? Should he and the club have</b><br />
<b>parted ways? What do you think will come out of MLB’s investigation of the 2018</b><br />
<b>squad? </b>{note: by the time I answered this, Ron Roenicke had already been hired}<br />
<br />
Having to find a manager at the last minute is never optimal. Even though the Red Sox did<br />
interview some outside candidates, I think it was wise that they took an internal option for the<br />
sake of continuity. Bringing in a new face is fine if they have the off-season to get up to speed,<br />
but not when you’re thrown into it with no time to prepare. I think Ron Roenicke will be fine,<br />
although I don’t think he will be around for the long term.<br />
As far as the MLB investigation, I really don’t think much will come of it. Cora was implicated<br />
from his time in Houston, but I doubt anything nearly as offensive occurred in Boston.<br />
<br />
<b>2. The other big story this offseason focused on the status of Mookie Betts. Do you think</b><br />
<b>the Red Sox trade him before the end of the year and what kind of package would you</b><br />
<b>want to see them get back? </b>{note: as above, by the time I answered this, he had already been traded}<br />
<br />
I think it was inevitable that they were going to trade Mookie Betts. And contrary to most of<br />
the fanbase, I actually believe that it wasn’t solely driven as a financial decision. It is always<br />
better to get something for a player rather than have him leave as a free agent and receive no<br />
return. Of course, in this case, Boston did give up a year of Betts for that return.<br />
It’s impossible to predict the future, but I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if the cumulative value<br />
of the players we received (Verdugo, Jeter Downs, and Connor Wong) during their tenure in<br />
Boston is more than what Betts would provide in one season. I do believe throwing in David<br />
Price was more of a financial move to get under the cap, and I think losing him will end up<br />
hurting more than Betts.<br />
<br />
<b>3. Is there a prospect in the organization that will make a big impact on the major league</b><br />
<b>squad this season?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
The short answer is no. Some of our best prospects are a year or two away. They may get<br />
called up for a cup of coffee or as a short term injury replacement, but I don’t think guys like<br />
Triston Casas or Downs, will have a big impact this season. There are other guys who may get<br />
some playing time and fill in holes, such as Bobby Dalbec or CJ Chatam, but I don’t think any of<br />
them will have the impact that Devers, Benintendi, or Chavis had as call ups the last few<br />
seasons.<br />
The only players I could see that could possibly have a big impact are pitchers. And from that<br />
list, maybe Jay Groome can finally put it together, or flame throwing Dalton Furbush (aka Durbin<br />
Feltman) could come in as a one inning lights out guy.<br />
<br />
<b>4. What are your expectations for 2020? Where do you think they’ll finish in the division?</b><br />
<br />
Last year I was said I was bracing for the inevitable disappointment that 2019 would bring. That was mainly due to the unrealistically high expectations. This year I have the exact opposite feeling. It’s a stress free year. Expectations are low, nobody thinks they’ll be a contender, so we can just enjoy the season and if they’re in the race in September, it’s a bonus. Having said that, I do think they’ll be in the running for 2nd place in the division, ending up short at 3rd place with about 89 wins.<br />
<br />
<b>5. What’s the main topic Red Sox fans are discussing that maybe isn’t obvious to other teams?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
We have some good cost-controlled young players, that could fetch a huge haul in the trade market. I could see guys like Andrew Benintendi, Michael Chavis, or even Rafael Devers being involved in trade talks. Fans may not initially be happy with it but it’s always better to sell high.<br />
<br />
<b>6. What are you looking forward to most about the coming season?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Eduardo Rodriguez quietly was the most valuable Red Sox player not named Mookie last year. It seems like he’s been around forever but he’s still only 26. I’m really looking forward to see how he progresses.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-21016582600385001872019-12-12T00:00:00.000-07:002019-12-24T13:17:26.471-07:00The Most Exciting Inning...<h2>
<span style="color: red;">....That I Witnessed Live in a Completely Meaningless Game</span></h2>
<br />
I meant to write about this earlier, but never got around to it. However, I believe that what happened in this particular game (which happens multiple times a year) is very relevant given some recent rule changes, so I figured it was time for my semi-once-in-a-while post.<br />
<br />
I want to recount what I saw in a game that took place on a cool evening in the Summer of 2013 in San Francisco. The game was meaningless in every sense of the word. There were no exciting pitchers starting, no milestones to be broken, there wasn't a no-hitter or a batter hitting for the cycle, it didn't mean a lot for the standings...<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Here's what happened to lead up to the top of the 8th inning - which is what the title of this post is about:<br />
<br />
The 4th place Giants (this was an odd numbered year after all), were hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks on <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN201307190.shtml" target="_blank">July 19th</a>. Chad Gaudin started the game and came out of the gate throwing VERY well. He had been used in a mix of bullpen roles <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=gaudich01&t=p&year=2013" target="_blank">earlier in the season</a> and had performed above expectations, keeping his ERA around 2, when he was moved to the rotation at the start of June. Adam Eaton led off the game striking out swinging, and Aaron Hill followed by looking at a 2-2 pitch. Paul Goldschmidt then hit a weak popup that Marco Scutaro backed up a few steps from his regular 2nd base position and caught to quietly retire the side.<br />
<br />
In the bottom of the first, Buster Posey doubled in Gregor Blanco who had walked to lead off the home half of the inning, and then scored on a Hunter Pence single to give the Giants a 2-0 lead. Nothing else of note happened until the seventh inning stretch. Chad Gaudin had just recorded his fourth 3-up-3-down frame of the game, and had retired the last nine batters. He was cruising on just 92 pitches, maintaining that 2-0 lead, having only given up three singles without walking a batter. In fact, this may have been his best start of the season, in what was probably the best year of his career.<br />
<br />
But he was due up in the bottom of the 7th, and this was <a href="https://amzn.to/399S8ok" target="_blank">National League ball</a>, so inevitably his night was over. I was a little surprised to see "Frenchy" Jeff Francouer come out to the on-deck circle. I didn't know he was still in the majors, having been released earlier in the season, but later confirmed that he in fact he got paid $6 million that season and continued to have several negative WAR seasons after this. Rooting for the Giants I wasn't overly enthused by the substitution, but Bruce Bochy showed that just maybe he knows a little bit more about managing a baseball team than I do, as he lined a double down the right field line to get himself in scoring position for the top of the lineup. Alas, Will Harris induced three consecutive ground balls, and he was left stranded.<br />
<br />
On to the 8th inning.... which is what this whole post is about.<br />
<br />
Lefty hitting Gerado Parra (the <a href="https://youtu.be/AetTT3d5k70" target="_blank">Baby Shark guy!</a>) led off so Bochy brought lefty Javier Lopez on to face him. And he did his job getting him to fly out. Didi Gregorious was up next, but Kirk Gibson wanted to strategize just as much as Bochy, so he had righty AJ Pollock pinch hit. This of course necessitated a pitching change, and righty Sandy Rosario was summoned. I wasn't happy to see a mid-inning pitching change, as this summer day was quickly getting very chilly. I just had a light jacket on and had already resigned myself to the fact that if the game went to extra innings I was going to have to pay ballpark prices for a jacket or blanket to keep me warm. Anyhow, Pollock did his job getting a single and bringing up lefty Eric Chavez as the tying run. Predictably Bochy went back to the pen and called on lefty Jose Mijares to preserve the lead. But the chess matched continued as Kirk Gibson called Chavez back to the dugout and had Cody Ross go up instead. So now Bochy was stuck with a lefty pitching to Ross. I remembered the previous year in Boston, Ross destroyed lefties. And he didn't waste anytime swinging at the first pitch he saw and drove it deep into centerfield..... I thought the game was tied, but it stayed in the park, and now there were two outs with one man on. And Adam Eaton, who like Chavez hits from the left side came up, so at least I knew there wouldn't be another pitching change. Mijares was lucky to have dodged a bullet with Ross, but could be counted on to get the lefty. Well, Eaton surprised everyone at the ballpark (well, at least everyone that isn't used to watching this National League style ball every night) by bunting. With two outs! He was successful and now the go ahead run came up. And it was Aaron Hill, a right-handed batter. So you know what that meant - another pitching change as righty Santiago Casilla was summoned. Meanwhile it wasn't getting any warmer in the stands. I contemplated getting a coffee or hot chocolate from the concession but didn't want to miss a pitch that might be the difference in the game. Aaron Hill worked a full count and you could feel the tension mounting in the air. Both runners would be off on the pitch, and with the jump the speedy Eaton might be able to score the tying run on a base hit. But Hill didn't chase a low slider, and the bases were now loaded. The Giants had managed to work themselves into a bases loaded jam, while clinging to a two run lead. And now they had to face Paul Goldschmidt. He was in the middle of an all-star season where he ended up in second place in the MVP voting. But Casilla got ahead on him 1-2 and Goldy grounded an outside slider to the shortstop who flipped to second to end the threat. Disaster averted.<br />
<br />
The final tally for this inning: Four different pitchers were used. Two of whom didn't retire the only batter they were brought in for. They threw 19 pitches facing 6 different batters.Arizona entered 3 pinch hitters into the game. But by the end of the frame, the Giants got the job done, escaping without giving up a run. (Epilogue: Sergio Romo got the side in order in an uneventful 9th). For a completely meaningless game, this whole sequence throughout this half inning was extremely intense. I was mentally exhausted, not to mention freezing from having to sit through this in a mid 50s night with that wind rolling in from the San Francisco Bay. But I LOVED IT! It was one of the most exciting series of events I witnessed live in the 55 MLB games I've attended. Pundits will say that "nothing" happened. The score was 2-0 heading into the inning, and that's how the game finished. But the deep usage of the bullpen and pinch hitters added an element of game theory and strategy that kept the fans on the edge of their seat throughout.<br />
<br />
But I lament the fact that with the new rules brought into place starting next season we won't be able to witness this anymore. MLB is <a href="http://m.mlb.com/glossary/rules/three-batter-minimum" target="_blank">instituting a three batter minimum </a>per relief pitcher. This is ostensibly to reduce average game times. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather sit through an exciting 3 hours and 5 minutes than a boring 2 hours and 50 minutes.<br />
<br />
What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments, or comment on my <a href="http://twitter.com/baseballruben">@BaseballRuben </a>twitter account.<br />
<br />
<br />Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-33158422343135516432019-11-01T16:04:00.000-06:002019-11-01T16:04:01.275-06:007 road wins! What are the odds? Not that bad.....<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a 1="" href="https://amzn.to/2NwaHt4%20imageanchor=" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="721" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOimvh5jIP_tqIWDgIW9JA6yJEIgVT5YNqsoJJCsSvVpt06NQ9AvjFqSNrg-pXY_3luLIXUEUIuxUYhkWNUvPYT3Ra-YbtwnuUqoV3v4vzMS1mXHa7787dYZBcbCF3foZkAhHHtBXqgAZG/s320/natswin.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
Anyone who watched the recently concluded World Series (congratulations to the <a href="https://amzn.to/32asxXI" target="_blank">Nationals</a>), couldn't help but hear / read / see the constant barrage of media members tripping all over themselves to point out that this was the first time a road team won every game. And the World Series has been an annual (<a href="https://amzn.to/2oz9tVg" target="_blank">almost!</a>) tradition for over 100 years, so how amazing was this???<br />
<br />
Below is just one of many outlets who were already mentioning it after Game 6:<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
For the first time in World Series history, the road teams sweep Games 1-6. <br />
<br />
Game 1: HOU at home; WAS wins<br />
Game 2: HOU at home; WAS wins<br />
Game 3: WAS at home; HOU wins<br />
Game 4: WAS at home; HOU wins<br />
Game 5: WAS at home; HOU wins<br />
Game 6: HOU at home; WAS wins <a href="https://t.co/Df0KhUWfjM">pic.twitter.com/Df0KhUWfjM</a></div>
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) <a href="https://twitter.com/CBSSportsHQ/status/1189388571293241350?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 30, 2019</a></blockquote>
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And then of course Washington won Game 7 in Houston as well.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
I pointed out at that time, that this wasn't THAT surprising, by using some simple math<sup>1</sup>
to show this should happen approximately once in every 100 MLB best of 7 series. My twitter follower, Jere, did some digging for me, and found that there have been 108 MLB series that have gone six or more games.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Unofficially I came up with 108 6-or-more-game series in MLB. But it means more when talking about all 3 of the major sports with 7-game series, cuz NBA has a LOT of best-of-7s to pull from. & this is the first time in any of the 3 right? Or would only all 7 road wins be a first?</div>
— JPS (@rsfpt) <a href="https://twitter.com/rsfpt/status/1189401305166630913?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 30, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<br />
After Game 7 there were some even more amazing sounding numbers spewed around:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
This is the first time in 1,420 best-of-seven series across NHL, NBA and MLB that the road team has won every game.</div>
— Alyson Footer (@alysonfooter) <a href="https://twitter.com/alysonfooter/status/1189398237142142976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 30, 2019</a></blockquote>
Here's a whole <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/sports/baseball/world-series-home-teams.html" target="_blank">New York Times article</a> on this "rare" phenomenon.<br />
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A few things to point out here:<br />
1 - It isn't that rare. As my math below<sup>1</sup> shows, the odds of winning six road games in a row in baseball are about 1 in 105. Winning 7 would be 1 in 229.<br />
2 - Sure, there have been 1420 seven game series in the selected sports.... but the only way a road team can win every game is if it goes the full seven games. How many of these series went the full distance? No idea, the author doesn't bother mentioning that, instead repeating this meaningless number. If there had in fact been that many seven game series, it would be HIGHLY unlikely<sup>2</sup> that in not a single one of them did the road team win all seven games.<br />
3 - Something happening once in 229 times is indeed uncommon. But not "rare" (depending on one's definition). Every day people experience events that are equally uncommon. The odds of being dealt pocket aces in poker<sup>3</sup> are almost exactly the same, and if someone playing poker gets this, they don't start announcing to the world what an improbable occurrence this was, and how the dealer must have some special card dealing skills.<br />
4 - The key here is that if you repeat the same series of events numerous times, even the most seemingly uncommon sequences are likely to happen. If you flip a coin ten times and get heads each time you may be tempted to buy a lottery ticket, feeling it's your lucky day. But if you do this routine each morning when you get up, chances are that within two years<sup>4</sup> , one morning you will flip ten heads in a row. Trust me, you haven't developed a unique skill or become luckier than the average bear when this happens. It's no more unlikely an outcome than any other combination of heads/tails showing up. It's just the human mind noticing patterns.<br />
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So, was Washington winning the World Series some kind of miracle, as no road team had ever won four games in a series? No, them winning was much more likely due to Houston's stubborn insistence on bunting :)<br />
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<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Got a pitcher on the ropes, he's given up 3 straight hits, trying to find his groove... and you voluntarily hand him an easy out. Even if the sac bunt was successful, it would have been a poor choice.</div>
— Ruben Lipszyc ⚾ 🇨🇦 (@BaseballRuben) <a href="https://twitter.com/BaseballRuben/status/1189703669270245376?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 31, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<sup>1</sup> Historically, MLB home teams win approximately 54% of the time (that means road teams win 46% if you need some <a href="https://rubensrants.wordpress.com/2000/01/01/math-for-dummies/" target="_blank">help with math</a>). So the odds of winning two games in a row are 0.46 x 0.46. Six games would be 0.46<sup>6</sup> which is approximately 0.0095. 1÷0.0095=105.<br />
<sup>2</sup> The odds of a road team wining all games in 0.46<sup>7</sup>. The odds of that not happening are 1-0.46<sup>7</sup>= 0.9956. If you have something with a 99.5% probability of happening and you do it 1420 times, the chances of it never happening are 0.9956<sup>1420</sup>=.002. In other words, 499 out of 500 times that you have 1420 series, in at least one of them will the road team win all seven games.<br />
<sup>3</sup> Odds of the first card being an ace are 4 in 52. For the next card it is 3 in 51. Multiplying these together is 0.0045. 1÷0.0045=221.<br />
<sup>4 </sup>Odds of heads once are 50% or 0.5. Heads ten times is 0.5<sup>10</sup>.= 0.00098 or 1023 in 1024. The odds of this not happening are 1023 in 1024. Similar to footnote 2 above, (1023/1024)<sup>730</sup>= 0.49. So there is slightly more than a 50% chance of this happening within the two years.<br />
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-29202220885354738112019-06-29T11:08:00.000-06:002019-06-29T11:08:07.660-06:00The Red Sox DO NOT need a closer<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://amzn.to/2XDo4OV" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="272" data-original-width="294" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5i7qW89gIsqbO3KFbp6iRSuK1LWKFlEpbK6eiWG9fkff4YH-At6WjUoxX5RPhaXMaZF-UxILatzYs2xEeiiY_9zEz1onSBNvvBRQLXjszMhZBS5qk1ozCZgmuwXS4YNIMgktvbxJ_MGYF/s320/closers.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The "Closers"</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
I know, I know.<br />
<br />
We’ve blown 247 saves just this past month. And at least 89 of those were with a multiple run lead in the 9th inning. Surely if we had a competent closer, such as any of the guys on the left, we’d at least be in striking distance of the Yankees, if not alone in first place.<br />
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Wait, some of those numbers above are incorrect you say? My bad, I didn’t look up the exact stats, I was just writing based on what this team’s “fans” whine about on twitter, message boards, sports radio and more. If the numbers aren’t quite accurate, they’re at least a good representation of what has happened this season.<br />
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We do have a lot of blown saves and have lost a lot of late inning leads – this fact I’m 100% certain on, without having to google the actual numbers.<br />
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But!<br />
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Getting. A. Good. Closer. Won’t. Help.<br />
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Don’t believe me? Let me explain why:
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<a name='more'></a><br />
First of all the “blown save” number is one of the worst statistics out there. It is worse than meaningless, some very good pitching performances result in getting one. Let’s say some fungible middle reliever comes into the game in the bottom of the 6th, with his team clinging to a 4-3 lead. The starter has just been pulled after loading up the bases without recording an out. The reliever does his job, inducing a run scoring double play ball and getting a strikeout to limit the damage, and head to the 7th tied up. Good work by the reliever, he kept his team in the game, and lowered his ERA, getting 3 outs without giving up an earned run. BUT he does get charged with a blown save for his good performance. Confused? Well, if he had kept the lead, and pitched the 7th, 8th, and 9th, he would be credited with a save, therefore statistically it IS a save situation. He came into the game with the lead, and gave it up, therefore he gets a BS added to the back of his baseball card. Conversely, your $100 million closer warms up in the top of the 9th of a 1-0 game. Your offence scores 3 runs to make it a comfortable 4 run lead. It’s no longer a save situation, but you’re closer is ready, so you might as well use him. But he’s got nothing – gives up 3 runs and loads the bases before finally getting pulled. Now the home crowd is getting nervous, defeat is about to be snatched away from the jaws of victory. Someone warms up quickly, shuts the door and Dirty Water is played, everyone goes home happy. The closer will have to answer some tough questions post game, but he does not get a blown save for 2 reasons. One, it wasn’t a save situation, and secondly, his team still had the lead when he departed. Alternatively, if he’s left in to close his own mess, and gives up a grand slam, losing the game 7-4, he STILL won’t get a blown save – just a loss.<b> tl;dr you can take your blown save stat and shove it next to fielding percentage and RBIs as numbers I don’t want to see quoted in reference to how good/bad a player/team is.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Ok, so we’ve agreed to ignore the blown save stat, but we still have that pesky little problem of blowing a lot of late leads. Let’s say we sign the best closer in the game, and I told you he’d end the season with 18K/9 and an ERA of 1.50. Hands up if you would be happy with that. Great! Now put your hands down before I finish this paragraph and you embarrass yourselves. Because this guy is so good, we are only going to use him in a traditional closer’s role. We want him to get 3 outs in the 9th inning with a 1 run lead – a REAL save. We get into 60 such situations during the season and use him in all of those. How many of those games will he be successful in, given the yearend ERA I referenced above? Well, let’s do some math (sorry!). He pitches 60 innings, and has an ERA of 1.50 which means he gave up 10 runs (60 ÷ 9 x 1.50). If he spread those out equally, that’s 10 times he gave up the lead in the 9th inning. <i>How happy are you, now that we have the world’s greatest closer, and he has 10 “blown saves”? </i>Yeah, didn't think so.<i> </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
The point is no reliever pitcher is going to go through a whole season without giving up a run. EVERY team, no matter how good their bullpen or closer blows leads in games, multiple times every year. (*1) The Red Sox are not alone in this. Our bullpen has actually been VERY good this season (*2). Some recency bias, confirmation bias, <a href="https://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2016/11/why-you-should-listen-to-your-opponents.html" target="_blank">echo chambering </a>with other fans, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Restorff_effect" target="_blank">Van Restorff</a> effect and other cognitive biases are responsible for the fanbase thinking this bullpen is worse than it is. (In layman’s terms, it is far easier to remember that one lead we blew against our hated rivals that was on Sunday Night Baseball that we watched with our friends, than the 10 straight perfect outings where we were clinging to and held on to a one run lead against high powered offences).<br />
<br />
So, Dave Dombrowski, if you’re reading this… please don’t make a <a href="https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/8/1/16066426/jeff-bagwell-astros-red-sox-hall-of-fame-larry-andersen-trade" target="_blank">panic trade</a> to appease the fanbase that may or may not have an actual impact on the team’s record.<br />
<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">(1) The Indians bullpen which has the best ERA in the majors has been charged with 8 losses. Edwin Diaz who had a sub 2 ERA last season and 57 saves, has blown 4 already. The Yankees "model" bullpen has 3 blown saves each from Britton and Ottavino and Chapman hasn't been perfect either as they've totaled 12 blown saves - not much fewer than Boston's 16. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">(2) Depending on which poison you choose to measure reliever's effectiveness, the Red Sox bullpen is <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=15,a" target="_blank">currently</a> 8th in the MLB in ERA (better than the much vaunted Yankees pen), 7th in value (fWAR), TOPS in K/9, and 10th in WPA. (However, they're 25th in saves and have the 2nd most blown saves if that is all you are looking at. Also only 6 teams have fewer pen losses than Boston's 11 (Yankees are one of those with 9).</span>Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-62863219502186880242019-03-12T10:07:00.000-06:002019-03-12T10:07:23.872-06:00Playing Pepper 2019 - Red Sox<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://amzn.to/2NRIVXA" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="619" data-original-width="892" height="277" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjobwwz77igrNFtTTZ9Cw524okaSnE32TcnP2tenzfoZOs0b5PbaMsQtXb-WGi2su5pFJPzl3nOWNhL779UvHzcG4PBjC7JQmlzzC2KNTjjFWW3Mzo1ooNiKRUzbzMyRyhxuLR3RMVuIdJh/s400/2016-mlb-playoffs-dustin-pedroia-15-of-the-boston-red-sox-makes-a-diving-play%252C2452339.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Will Pedroia be an everyday contributor?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Time for the annual Playing Pepper preview hosted at the <a href="http://www.cardsconclave.com/c70/" target="_blank">Cardinals C70</a> website, which previews every team. I was <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2018/03/playing-pepper-2018-red-sox-preview.html" target="_blank">again</a> one of the writers asked to answer some questions on the Red Sox. Below are the questions and answers, which are now also up on the <a href="http://www.cardsconclave.com/2019/03/12/playing-pepper-2019-boston-red-sox" target="_blank">C70 site</a> along with what others' prespectives.<br />
<br />
Make sure to check there daily for previews of the other MLB teams.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
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<b>1) What are your thoughts on the offseason? What was good, what was bad, what else should they have done?</b><br />
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It was good that they quickly resigned <a href="https://amzn.to/2XLOATw" target="_blank">World Series heroes</a> Steve Pearce and Nate Eovaldi. There was nothing bad. I was disappointed to see Joe Kelly leave, but his value was probably at an all-time high after the postseason he had. A lot of the fandom is concerned about our lack of a proven closer<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px;">™</span>, but I think the bullpen will sort itself out.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
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There’s a fine line between being complacent because you are the reigning Champions, and an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality, and making changes for the sake of change. In general I don’t like it when teams don’t make any changes, because typically all other teams have done something to improve, so you will have fallen back relative to the competition. But the Red Sox are in a precarious position where their hands are kind of tied as far as making moves go. They don’t have anything of value to trade other than established starting players that they need, or bench pieces which are probably move valuable to the team than what they would get in return, and they can’t afford to take on much more salary.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>2) How has the afterglow of this championship been different than the last three?</b><br />
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Somewhat more stressful. The way they dominated most of the season, and rolled through the playoffs, it almost would have seemed a disappointment if it culminated in something less than a Championship. But they benefited from some luck and timely moves and their record was probably better than their talent would indicate. So expectations for this upcoming season are unrealistically high. Instead of enjoying the offseason as much I did the previous ones, I’m bracing for the almost inevitable disappointment that I’m afraid the 2019 season will bring.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>3) Mookie Betts had an incredible 2018. Can he reach those levels again this season?</b><br />
<a href="https://amzn.to/2tYUxiA" target="_blank">Mookie Betts</a> was 25 years old last season, turning 26 during the playoffs. Players with similar starts to their careers (as per Bill James’ similarity scores shown on Baseball Reference), include Duke Snider, Manny Ramirez, and Carl Yastrzemski. Typically young players keep developing and peak between 26 and 30 years of age. This is a long-winded way of saying, yes, I think he can not only reach the same levels, but even improve on them.<br />
<br />
<b>4) What is your general outlook for 2019? Where will they finish in the division?</b><br />
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I don’t think they can top what they did last season. I believe their win total will drop into the mid 90s, and they will be in a fight for the division all season point. Ultimately I see them falling short and losing in the first round of the playoffs.<br />
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<br />
<b>5) What’s the biggest question for this team going into the season and what’s the answer to it?</b><br />
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I asked my readers this, and they all (I mean both of them) said the bullpen. Personally, I’m less worried about that than I am about Chris Sale. If he continues to be his dominant usual self when he’s healthy that’s great, but if his injuries limit his effectiveness or time on the field, there’s a big dropoff in replacing him with a number 6 starter.<br />
<br />
The other big question I have is will Dustin Pedroia be healthy, and if so does carrying both Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt on the bench become redundant, and is that a luxury that can be afforded? There is also Tzu-wei Lin, Marco Hernandez, and Michael Chavis waiting in the minors, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the bench players traded if Pedroia is injury free enough to at least play some of the time.<br />
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<b>6) What do you expect will give you the most joy watching this team on a regular basis this season?</b><br />
<br />
Unlike some previous incarnations of the Red Sox, where you could see teammates did not support each other and some players weren’t very likeable, this is a very likeable bunch which makes them easy to root for. I love watching the young guys smiling and having fun, and the sense that the rest of the players are all rooting for them.<br />
<br />
Last year it seemed out of place watching a Red Sox team have a deep playoff run without either Pedroia or David Ortiz. If Pedroia is healthy I will enjoy watching his competitiveness on every single pitch in every single game. That was the one thing I missed last year.<br />
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<br />Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-56215329880578060082019-02-17T15:34:00.000-07:002019-02-17T15:34:03.766-07:00Playing Pepper 2019 - Crowdsourcing answers<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.cardsconclave.com/c70/" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="291" data-original-width="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilNxSct9S518ECWgnT9aCLBy9alTnizJ9r0puv8_2Bde1xNXsd-yuBfTJQ1as5Ap3b1a206v4m17i_zxOb3B7MkWLGCrrw1TlEb9PRlhTelb2vowB_qI74pqYC5UJ9ZuSNOqQ9QO7pE06Z/s1600/c70.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">C70 At The Bat<br />
A great blog for St. Louis Cardinals fans</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
I have again been asked to supply a 2019 Red Sox preview for the <a href="http://www.cardsconclave.com/c70/" target="_blank">C70 </a>At The Bat <a href="http://www.cardsconclave.com/2018/03/23/playing-pepper-2018-index/" target="_blank">Playing Pepper series </a>which has been hosting previews of every team before the start of each season for several years now. Here was last year's <a href="https://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2018/03/playing-pepper-2018-red-sox-preview.html" target="_blank">post</a>.<br />
<br />
This year I've been asked the following questions:<br />
<br />
<br />
1) What are your thoughts on the offseason? What was good, what was bad, what else should they have done?<br />
<br />
2) How has the afterglow of this championship been different than the last three?<br />
<br />
3) Mookie Betts had an incredible 2018. Can he reach those levels again this season?<br />
<br />
4) What is your general outlook for 2019? Where will they finish in the division?<br />
<br />
5) What’s the biggest question for this team going into the season and what’s the answer to it?<br />
<br />
6) What do you expect will give you the most joy watching this team on a regular basis this season?<br />
<br />
I have my thoughts on these, and they will be published on C70 on or around March 12 along with thoughts of other Red Sox writers, but I thought I'd give my audience a chance to give me some input. That way I can start my answers somewhere along the lines of "Like most fans, I think that..." or "Contrary to most fans I believe...".<br />
<br />
So, what say you, Red Sox Nation? Do you have any strong opinions on any/all of the above questions? I'd love to hear from you. Leave your thoughts on the comments below, or reply on twitter, or email me directly at BaseballRuben AT gmail.<br />
<br />
Look back here on March 12th for my full post, and make sure to keep checking <a href="http://www.cardsconclave.com/c70/" target="_blank">C70</a> for daily previews of other teams.Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-71453690197107423692018-10-26T16:00:00.000-06:002018-10-26T16:00:05.302-06:00Why the Red Sox WILL (probably) win the World Series<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://amzn.to/2EOpPkq" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="258" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzZIldPmUV2qjZD_FtsE4ocWeqYm63Pwe62xoLiuiBn9dofkQvT3cmGzYfyi0hZ5XbUvI1kp8HR3UbkiyeM1tpw_Ns4NK9BjyAiNQsG-15MhtJeZQKuBIraXfXQfCmwj-Ri1uY5RgCirPQ/s320/sports.png" width="240" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Because they are up 2-0. Period. No real baseball analysis is needed. Don't believe me? Read on....</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">If instead of the outcome of the games being decided by who scores more runs in nine innings, it was based on a simple coin flip, we can build a simple model to see what the probability of winning a Series at any given point would be. And luckily it involves VERY simple math that is easy to understand. For example, the odds of flipping heads two times in a row are 1 in 4 (50% x 50% or 1 in 2 x 1 in 2). So, if a team is down 3-2 in a Series, the probability of them winning both games and taking the Series is 25%.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Now, we all know the games aren’t based on coin flips, but I believe using a coin flip model helps to get at least a rough idea of what can be expected. I first mentioned this in 2004. Down 3-0 to the Yankees, the odds of the <a href="https://amzn.to/2EKgNVv" target="_blank">Red Sox coming back to win</a> didn’t look good. Using a coin flip model, it was easy to see that the odds of winning 4 games in a row (or flipping a coin heads 4 times in a row), was 1 in 16 or about 6%. Now, this doesn’t sound very promising, but it’s not the 1 in a million that people made it sound like. (For comparison purposes, the<a href="https://amzn.to/2EKu940" target="_blank"> odds of being dealt pocket aces</a> are 1 in 221. Also not likely, but everybody has had this happen to them, several times if you play poker often enough). Sure, it had never happened in the history of baseball, but only 24 times previously had a team been up 3-0. The Red Sox coming back and winning and making it 1 time in 25, is pretty consistent with what would happen if every game was a coin flip*. It should happen about 1 and half times out of every 25. Once is slightly less than expected, twice is slightly more.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Anyhow, without even needing to use any math, it’s obvious that any time the same number of heads and tails have been flipped, the probability of getting a certain number of heads before the same number of tails is the same as tails reaching first (In other words… if teams are tied 1-1, or 2-2, the odds of either team winning a 3 of 5 or 4 of 7 are the same). Going through all the permutations of heads/tails out of 5 or 7 flips, you end up with this chart showing the probability of the leading or trailing team winning, depending on the current Series score:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhltCn6hUZYhhQAIAEqqJWdOswPKrvAd6ULCBwgpD9Qvs4k295QjBIrmXW9-7H48J6x3lSR71QjvK-KxpwnCpCAFuaytGDFqszxJavj9drGNljhndQCbrC0Kt8pj6jPqGoBWcdJ8IOEoJk5/s1600/chart1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="587" data-original-width="355" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhltCn6hUZYhhQAIAEqqJWdOswPKrvAd6ULCBwgpD9Qvs4k295QjBIrmXW9-7H48J6x3lSR71QjvK-KxpwnCpCAFuaytGDFqszxJavj9drGNljhndQCbrC0Kt8pj6jPqGoBWcdJ8IOEoJk5/s400/chart1.PNG" width="241" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">The<a href="https://www.mlb.com/gameday/dodgers-vs-red-sox/2018/10/24/563408?partnerId=LR_box#game_tab=box,game_state=final,game=563408" target="_blank"> Red Sox are up 2-0 right now,</a> based on the above they have an 81% probability of winning 4 games before the Dodgers do. I saw a graphic after Game 2 that said teams with a 2-0 lead <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/2-to-0-deficit-baseball-playoff-rallies/c-297376582" target="_blank">have won 84% of the time</a>. This is pretty damn close. The above chart is a useful reference if you ever want a quick and dirty guesstimate of the probability of a team to win given their current situation. It’s not perfect, because it ignores some minor details (specifically, it ignores BASEBALL, and everything related to it), but a handy thing to keep (literally and figuratively) in your back pocket.</span><br />
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(*) Note: I’m NOT saying that the outcome of each game is the same as a coin flip. Obviously some teams are better than others, pitching matchups, home field, injuries etc., all need to be taken into account. But when you get to the World Series, more often than not both teams are at least closely matched up. Even a 100 win talent team is only going to beat a 90 win talent team about 55% of the time in a given game. If we assume that in the previous 24 times, on average, the leading team had a 55% probability of winning each game, the chances of the trailing team coming back are (0.45)<sup>4</sup>=4% which is one time in 25, matching EXACTLY what has happened.<br />
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Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-1243603017695080972018-10-02T17:55:00.002-06:002018-10-02T17:55:42.746-06:00Why the Red Sox won't win the World Series<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://amzn.to/2Qq6J4P"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="801" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSODSQkIUpocqbeu1XBqyB-aSWtelbNaAg8xM9Y-u9yOJsKwEv2f-G1o8hZXlozjYNUYeuM5pSQvUFismOcE-4GNbOPggjtxaNtKDsbYF4Wk5RbHt9AAaBg1svq1HK_aYWb4UMk7kKCzUj/s320/duckboats.jpg" width="213" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(Greg M. Cooper/USA TODAY Sports)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
No, it’s not because of their <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2018/10/war-whats-it-good-for.html" target="_blank">bullpen</a>. Without going into a lot of deep analysis, simply put it’s because there are 10 teams in the playoffs. The Red Sox may have the best one, and may have the best probability of winning it all, but it’s still far from a sure thing, or even a likely thing. <br />
<br />
Read on….<br />
<br />
The Atlanta Braves made the playoffs 14 seasons in a row from 1991 to 2005, but only won the World Series one time and were considered a disappointment because of it. With eight teams making the playoffs, on average, a team will win once every eight times it gets in there (slightly more if they’re better than the average playoff team, slightly less if they’re worse). Fans and baseball analysts usually grossly overstate this “slightness”. More on that in a minute. Anyways, the Braves would have been expected to win 1.75 times out of those 14. If they had won twice they would have actually exceeded the expected.<br />
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But, if they were always the best team in the league surely they should have won more often, you may think. But not necessarily. As I alluded to above, most people overestimate the advantage a better team has over an inferior one. Sure, the better team is more likely to win, but the advantage is typically small. It’s rare in a playoff series to have a team be expected to win with more than a 60% probability.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
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As <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2017/08/why-dodgers-wont-win-world-series.html" target="_blank">I have explained before</a>, the probability that one team beats another in a single game can be approximated by adding 50% to the difference in their winning percentages. e.g, a .500 team is going to beat a .400 team 60% of the time, and lose to a .600 team 60% of the time. (Note: this obviously ignores home field advantage, pitching matchup, injuries, and so on. It’s a model meant to be useful at a macro level). Playoff teams typically have very similar win-loss records. Sure, a 102 win team sounds much better than an 88 win team, but in terms of winning percentage, it’s like a 10-6 football team playing a 9-7 team. The 9-7 team <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2014/02/no-parity-in-nfl-only-in-baseball.html" target="_blank">might not be favored</a>, but it wouldn’t be a shock if they won.<br />
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Let’s use some actual numbers with this year’s Red Sox: The hardest path to duck boats would involve beating the 100 win Yankees, 103 win Astros, and 97 win Brewers in the LDS, LCS, and World Series. The probability of beating the Yankees in a given game is about 55%. Extrapolating some math for a best 3 out of 5 shows that Boston will win 3 before New York does about 59% of the time. The numbers for Houston are 53 and 56%, and Milwaukee is 57 and 65%. Therefore the probability of winning all these series is 59% x 56% x 65% = 22%. Even though we would be favored to win each individual series, there is less than 1 in 4 chance that we’d actually win all of them.<br />
Luckily, we won’t necessarily have the toughest road ahead of us. Maybe Oakland will beat New York, or Cleveland will upset Houston. And the Rockies end up winning the NL pennant. In that scenario, we would win all three series 29% of the time. Huh! A seemingly much easier route doesn’t make that much of a difference.<br />
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When you take into account for the probabilities of our potential opponents, and work out the math, the Red Sox have a 26% chance of winning it all. See full results for each team below<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuJcSIukdrTn7s4a3c-3JR4-VcLVwmPXWd8Z3V6IVAAYqyFvPw0gcSdiOAXP07btY6pwU4AjCgEAKu0_N19TS7Za0SRCDdr-94I1tN_m-6I3Tg1IZBYnPAe8Qn0kXnQ6qOWe4eC5SdX4-l/s1600/2018+chart.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="259" data-original-width="511" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuJcSIukdrTn7s4a3c-3JR4-VcLVwmPXWd8Z3V6IVAAYqyFvPw0gcSdiOAXP07btY6pwU4AjCgEAKu0_N19TS7Za0SRCDdr-94I1tN_m-6I3Tg1IZBYnPAe8Qn0kXnQ6qOWe4eC5SdX4-l/s400/2018+chart.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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{By the way - copy of this fillable spreadsheet where you can play around and see how the probabilities change depending on how many wins your team or their opponents have is available for the asking}<br />
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Now, these are higher odds that any other team, and if I was forced to bet my life savings on one team, the Red Sox would be it. But there’s still an almost 3/4 chance that they won’t win it all. So, if there is a November parade which does not include duck boats, don’t be too disappointed.<br />
<br />Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-51381285859800821952018-10-01T18:04:00.001-06:002018-10-02T17:39:42.071-06:00WAR - What's it good for?<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://amzn.to/2QveZRp" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="491" data-original-width="500" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaYaAschv4K_4kNrLe8EblA6PnGZzOOSG1RW3zMcqWLi61nl5CSTFtO5uQqGIg4gRUN3kIOTAt2Kcy7sVT5sYn0xLlG8ZP7dY8LpTm2rCNc92fd00AGCrIzNG5YYu2-n4aNNP6Iqbb6VuS/s200/BRUCE_SPRINGSTEEN_WAR-79376.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">It's George Steinbrenner! Wait, <br />maybe this is the other boss</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">A whole lot more than you may think, Mr. Shaughnessy! </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Near the end of the season, Dan Shaughnessy, who is somehow still employed by the Boston Globe, tweeted that </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">the Red Sox bullpen was ranked first by WAR, and that tells him everything he needs to know about WAR. </span><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
WAR says the Red Sox have the best bullpen in baseball.<br />
I rest my case</div>
— Dan Shaughnessy (@Dan_Shaughnessy) <a href="https://twitter.com/Dan_Shaughnessy/status/1044702676083240960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 25, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">His implication is that this is a made up stat that only nerdy geeks can determine on their supercomputers and it’s not indicative of anything. I mean, everyone knows how bad the Boston bullpen is, and there’s near universal agreement that it’s our Achilles heel heading into the playoffs. So any stat that shows it as being good is obviously flawed.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Sigh. 🙄 Where to start? First of all, as the <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2015/08/pe-dro-pe-dro-pe-dro.html" target="_blank">second most famous #45</a> to our readers would say, this is <a href="https://amzn.to/2IuEQpD" target="_blank">#FakeNews</a>. The bullpen is actually <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d" target="_blank">ninth in WAR</a> according to Fangraphs. Ok, well #9 is still pretty good, and this bullpen obviously isn’t, so PIG’s point stands regardless. {Sidebar: I HATE the CHB moniker for Dan Shaughnessy. It <a href="http://articles.courant.com/2000-09-21/sports/0009211664_1_center-fielder-carl-everett-boston-globe-reporter-red-sox" target="_blank">originated </a>with <a href="https://amzn.to/2RhwV2P" target="_blank">Jurassic Carl</a> (whose nickname I DO love), but it is somewhat homophobic and has no place in today’s world (unlike dinosaurs….), so I prefer to call him <b>P</b>igheaded <b>I</b>rrelevant <b>G</b>uy, or just PIG for short}. But, what PIG fails to take into account (or did, but intentionally ignored so that the conclusion would fit in with his agenda), is that this is a season long stat. And in the first half Boston did have a pretty lights out bullpen: Craig Kimbrel was an all-star with a 1.77 ERA at the break. Joe Kelly, Bobby Poyner, and Matt Barnes had ERAs of 1.73, 1.69 and 1.95 respectively at some point in June. Carson Smith was a reliable 8th inning option until he had a season-ending injury. Hector Velazquez was 5-0 as a long reliever.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The pen HAS struggled lately, but it was ranked 3rd by WAR in the first half, and 23rd in the second half, for a season ending ranking of 9th. This easily passes the smell test to me. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Anyhow, if WAR is flawed as an indicator of bullpen effectiveness, then what would be a good stat to use? I don’t think that even PIG is naïve enough to suggest wins and losses. As useless as they are for starters, they are that much worse for relievers. Saves? For the most part they really only measure what your closer can do. How about ERA? Although somewhat flawed, it is the traditional stat that may have the most relevancy. How does the Boston bullpen rank in ERA? <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a" target="_blank">How about NINTH!</a> Hmmm…. If WAR is useless what does that tell you about ERA? </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">No, WAR is not useless. In fact bullpen WAR has such a good correlation with bullpen ERA (because I am a nerdy geek with access to a supercomputer - or at least a 3 year old laptop and excel - I ran it and confirmed that bullpen WAR did have a very high correlation, much higher than ERA to wins or saves, see here:)<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1863lSOvGvfY5viuCAm5TKtjYo5pS_cIirpe3zZwEzRNK3nXdauyFfkW9SAw4YEnRnT7jt0aXv96mvAa8OIL-Y9zCDjO8Uw462rUc15zHCxQ_q3NGg7jgt3oGb8FR1EGGC-8MtWpJ01WZ/s1600/regression.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="464" data-original-width="1093" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1863lSOvGvfY5viuCAm5TKtjYo5pS_cIirpe3zZwEzRNK3nXdauyFfkW9SAw4YEnRnT7jt0aXv96mvAa8OIL-Y9zCDjO8Uw462rUc15zHCxQ_q3NGg7jgt3oGb8FR1EGGC-8MtWpJ01WZ/s320/regression.PNG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Nerd Results</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
that without digging deeper into the numbers, that alone should tell you that although it may not be perfect, it is still a reasonable surrogate for the effectiveness of a bullpen. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">End of <a href="https://rubensrants.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">rant</a>. Let the postseason begin!</span><br />
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Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-63303665383729051492018-06-22T14:43:00.002-06:002018-06-22T14:43:58.483-06:00Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BkGdVnnjEFv" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1080" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9yeksjYUxrBc8kNdG9mh0qItEDYYCy99HDQpBq0BMPGyRe6PXIzaL_Z3TM6NOh0uyX-xFBwQ1OY9VjaAiTTym8UZGsuqkidOg43gEGIvTnLjMFXRMG_ORs0hC0retCRBgwKrU-ZZCsVcK/s320/IMG_9939.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pedro couldn't be there to say ¡Hola! himself, <br />
so I tried to represent his home country</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As mentioned <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2018/06/pedro-inducted-into-canadian-baseball.html" target="_blank">last time</a>, I went to Saint Marys, Ontario to see this year's Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame induction. What a great event it was. In spite of missing Pedro Martinez (due to a <a href="https://cooperstownersincanada.com/2018/06/14/pedro-martinez-unable-to-attend-canadian-ball-hall-induction-due-to-medical-condition/" target="_blank">medical condition</a>), Fergie Jenkins (due to family's health), and Kelly Gruber (due to <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/canadian-baseball-hall-fame-removes-gruber-weekend-events/" target="_blank">being an asshole</a>), it was still a great show.<br />
<br />
Shortly after I arrived, the first thing I noticed was how intimate it was. I saw a tent set up with chairs, that I assumed was for the VIPs - inductees, family members, special guests, etc - but quickly realized it was for everyone to sit and enjoy the ceremonies comfortably away from the heat of the sun and the sprinkle of rain that was coming down.<br />
<br />
<br />
Then, I saw several vendor tables. I recall at Cooperstown there were people on the streets yelling at fans to "come get an autographed ball by Pete Rose! Over here! Only $100 each" or whatever it was, but it was clearly a money grab (speaking of assholes, I hope Mr. Rose claimed income and paid his fair taxes to the IRS <a href="http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1891335_1891333_1891304,00.html" target="_blank">this time</a>!). If you tried to take a picture of a player, without lining up and paying the requisite fee, someone would not be happy. And many shops had authenticated memorabilia, all with price tags to ensure only the most serious of collectors would even consider purchasing it. But in Saint Marys, it was quite the opposite. Players and special guests were walking around mingling with the fans, and reminiscing about stories. And you could get autographed memorabilia for a very reasonable price.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYHK3XCbc6REcTB16wmFYjqujVGtJ9I4yuv12-8xqWkmm7KlXEsSxXegvFEZ3fLlVPRVOoFjw3LnfCSIcyUwUxvt2gim6tMjmmNyuFqkwDbS0zXO4rEc21a2jYjQD9G4KI-vNA_XyrfP4Y/s1600/IMG_9913.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYHK3XCbc6REcTB16wmFYjqujVGtJ9I4yuv12-8xqWkmm7KlXEsSxXegvFEZ3fLlVPRVOoFjw3LnfCSIcyUwUxvt2gim6tMjmmNyuFqkwDbS0zXO4rEc21a2jYjQD9G4KI-vNA_XyrfP4Y/s320/IMG_9913.JPG" width="180" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Fergie mobile</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As soon as I walked in I saw Fergie Jenkins' van, but had already heard he wasn't going to be there. Went to one of the vendor tables, and picked up a few souvenirs, including a signed ball by Jenkins, and one by Ryan Dempster (who I obviously became a fan of, when he joined the exclusive group of Canadians to play for the Red Sox, and all Yankee haters loved him after <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scvIcjxdEAI" target="_blank">he plunked A-Rod</a>).<br />
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I also found some Calgary Vipers merchandise there which is ironic since I can't find any in Calgary.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3ETwpymHECoKgcxzEYnQAHZjUz1bucYtDL75bgPZAUGCt8jKdNY4KOIVM34b7iefejHyuaFBAcTgcA4c3Li3aRqTmIAs_yISBCGH6UetO5U3UE5WjPaf8PGMFG7pttlrciC-26QpdeiMy/s1600/XKCV5927.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1600" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3ETwpymHECoKgcxzEYnQAHZjUz1bucYtDL75bgPZAUGCt8jKdNY4KOIVM34b7iefejHyuaFBAcTgcA4c3Li3aRqTmIAs_yISBCGH6UetO5U3UE5WjPaf8PGMFG7pttlrciC-26QpdeiMy/s320/XKCV5927.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A Calgary Vipers sighting. I couldn't not get it!</td></tr>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZHFbtvZzD37eRzDwMYaycJT2NFIicUXCniVom2ijyPyGzKaE_eIBivT_abQx7Ev5tv2_spgqdGF3cvKKfBv8mzebLiJebn4J8I9ApoTnemWe1HeLYytjI4KKWpNGZzVZ2ZBK-nKaiaJgl/s1600/IMG_9964.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZHFbtvZzD37eRzDwMYaycJT2NFIicUXCniVom2ijyPyGzKaE_eIBivT_abQx7Ev5tv2_spgqdGF3cvKKfBv8mzebLiJebn4J8I9ApoTnemWe1HeLYytjI4KKWpNGZzVZ2ZBK-nKaiaJgl/s320/IMG_9964.JPG" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Hall of Famer, Fergie Jenkins</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglCPHn2nLg9ZppGupxLA9_RqUa_mRXjTKLIYLLVHRRM30YAgWXPwCWGgRM_hhAimlASu9wgxQMmym6InRLebYc7NfgRfTSwdgGYrS_jaMgLhfIs5v3o7TmZ4LR0-KnOpmflr_lwN3nsKC6/s1600/IMG_9965.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglCPHn2nLg9ZppGupxLA9_RqUa_mRXjTKLIYLLVHRRM30YAgWXPwCWGgRM_hhAimlASu9wgxQMmym6InRLebYc7NfgRfTSwdgGYrS_jaMgLhfIs5v3o7TmZ4LR0-KnOpmflr_lwN3nsKC6/s320/IMG_9965.JPG" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A-Rod plunker Ryan Dempster</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Then I spotted Bill Lee, and went up to him and we started chatting. This is the third time I've had the pleasure of talking with him. He is a great storyteller and always interesting. I already had baseball cards and pictures of him that he's signed previously, this time I got him to sign his book and got another ball.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizDGFOvk0E7M8XzKrjuqBYc0Po806Ad1liuAgXa4vfgFEPlvvuU66s18GFRR2shEIiSiKOQhzVvPt_hUkruT7Yem2XX_6Yyr33J3i8LWHF_Uz4oNhcLCVeRvYnVMZJYmBvjkzVtr7iVaRl/s1600/bill+lee+x3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="702" data-original-width="1600" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizDGFOvk0E7M8XzKrjuqBYc0Po806Ad1liuAgXa4vfgFEPlvvuU66s18GFRR2shEIiSiKOQhzVvPt_hUkruT7Yem2XX_6Yyr33J3i8LWHF_Uz4oNhcLCVeRvYnVMZJYmBvjkzVtr7iVaRl/s400/bill+lee+x3.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"> Bill Lee, Bill Lee, More Bill Lee </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Then the ceremony started. Pedro wasn't there, but they had some former Expos who accepted the honour. Fittingly it started with another #45, Steve Rogers, as well as Bill Lee and Bill Atkinson.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglGs4rty6kzIGuzQJazhPHQPaZ0HtmEp0Cc814U1Pi9Ve2zvdLDbZ4avKXjLFjGvhZ54b9JiamDDW7ksqCytQAJ0EtmqV-LJq9C8TzYUjfrEWw_R0fR2D2EBLYsRVnKv2A5ok1QDozELZf/s1600/rogers.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1153" data-original-width="1600" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglGs4rty6kzIGuzQJazhPHQPaZ0HtmEp0Cc814U1Pi9Ve2zvdLDbZ4avKXjLFjGvhZ54b9JiamDDW7ksqCytQAJ0EtmqV-LJq9C8TzYUjfrEWw_R0fR2D2EBLYsRVnKv2A5ok1QDozELZf/s320/rogers.jpg" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Another great Expos pitcher who wore #45</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7FQIt8ZZTnE_aN07-_PgbozA4O-L98PkvFPl3u2_cxthGccfS_vaBCgvi2yfk-UUZdrrh-bkwoe89hH4OwRQO5BbkoW0KvLmpLic1u1X_xRXk5AiTwzRKx16Kw0a9yGHP9VzAiVZtux3e/s1600/lee.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1192" data-original-width="864" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7FQIt8ZZTnE_aN07-_PgbozA4O-L98PkvFPl3u2_cxthGccfS_vaBCgvi2yfk-UUZdrrh-bkwoe89hH4OwRQO5BbkoW0KvLmpLic1u1X_xRXk5AiTwzRKx16Kw0a9yGHP9VzAiVZtux3e/s320/lee.jpg" width="231" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Another picture of Bill Lee, just because</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Pedro did have a video message for the fans where he apologized for not being able to make it:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/WtxjDYUbx7w/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WtxjDYUbx7w?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
Historian William Humber was also inducted. He had a major role in bringing to light the fact that <a href="https://www.canadianbaseballnetwork.com/canadian-baseball-network-articles/2015/5/20/deconstructing-beachville-first-game" target="_blank">baseball was being played in Canada </a>well before Abner Doubleday "invented" it. He's also written <a href="https://amzn.to/2McWTRQ" target="_blank">Diamonds of the North</a>. And is the main reason Canadians can say this:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
“Baseball is a Canadian game that we’re happy to share with Americans”. 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦</div>
— Ruben Lipszyc ⚾ 🇨🇦 (@BaseballRuben) <a href="https://twitter.com/BaseballRuben/status/1008036480063684609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 16, 2018</a></blockquote>
Then "The Shaker", Lloyd Moseby got up to speak. He was so humble, and you could tell he didn't feel comfortable receiving this recognition. He kept repeating that he felt he didn't deserve it. I can't even begin to give his speech justice, so I'll <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/opinion/2018/06/18/lloyd-moseby-goes-from-california-kid-to-canadian-baseball-hall-of-famer.html" target="_blank">let you read</a> what Richard Griffin (who was also present) wrote about him.<br />
<br />
Some other notes on the weekend:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>As I was walking around, I hear someone say "Hi, you must be Ruben.". It was none other than <a href="https://cooperstownersincanada.com/about/" target="_blank">Kevin Glew</a> who was one of the first reporters to interview me and write about my efforts to induct Jim Rice into Cooperstown. I had only ever spoken to him on the phone and online, so it was a pleasant surprise to bump into him. </li>
<li>I have no idea why I had never gone to Saint Mary's until now. It's only a little over an hour from the city I grew up in and often visit. The baseball musem was closed for renovations, so I will need to come back up when it's open and check it out</li>
<li>The following day, I went to Grand Bend for Father's Day dinner (Happy Father's Day, Dad!), and in the restaurant lobby I saw this:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpIlSZaEIPTlnPUUzmA3MrCbrerQNmzw-HHEC5JnBkPoGPaXgBn55xgM_Q5ljosDiBJ8B5YRwetgpLSsM-NmVYLuvTw6doCFtyrWSzDDFYhF82rL4Ag8c2eQswhokcgEddMawjJTro83Pn/s1600/st+marys+chair.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="960" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpIlSZaEIPTlnPUUzmA3MrCbrerQNmzw-HHEC5JnBkPoGPaXgBn55xgM_Q5ljosDiBJ8B5YRwetgpLSsM-NmVYLuvTw6doCFtyrWSzDDFYhF82rL4Ag8c2eQswhokcgEddMawjJTro83Pn/s320/st+marys+chair.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
</li>
</ul>
<span style="text-align: center;">What are the odds?</span><br />
<div>
<ul>
<li>I was supposed to fly back on Monday but my flight was cancelled. Left Tuesday morning, and just a few hours later, Calgarian Mike Soroka was pitching in Toronto. I should have stayed another 24 hours. Instead I got to watch him pitch back in Calgary with several other local fans, organized by <a href="https://albertadugoutstories.com/" target="_blank">Alberta Dugout Stories</a> and ended up being interviewed by Global Sports. It would have been nice to watch Mike live in Toronto, but it was pretty fun to watch baseball in this hockey-crazed province with other fans too.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwj50C7lsnFJeGBWmzHZWx4pBU0mEZiBIHxXgINJCtuJ5nriwYeJ6rLQB45eYN1d1vNnDuDFSMioQFjubgo0ElAaHS86pH86sKADkMhQjiSsFS_TBqIvviAytDbAvOkeNjtkcBvE77WwSL/s1600/IMG_E9970.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="546" data-original-width="750" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwj50C7lsnFJeGBWmzHZWx4pBU0mEZiBIHxXgINJCtuJ5nriwYeJ6rLQB45eYN1d1vNnDuDFSMioQFjubgo0ElAaHS86pH86sKADkMhQjiSsFS_TBqIvviAytDbAvOkeNjtkcBvE77WwSL/s400/IMG_E9970.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A face made for radio</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-48524071092376740322018-06-14T15:43:00.000-06:002018-06-14T15:43:09.650-06:00Pedro inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm1jYhVZmrfa07RyokLT2PegvI4aQ3MyFe-q3tU2APdMK0QfTA7gdaYg0nQRPz4whKhyphenhyphen1_o7sNfgq08qYJkJ3OE8t099Is83FkcRmxMgmIgyM0pCTrPLxb6AMf1vO_AjCPtyKaaxV1qA3X/s1600/ccbbhof.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="300" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm1jYhVZmrfa07RyokLT2PegvI4aQ3MyFe-q3tU2APdMK0QfTA7gdaYg0nQRPz4whKhyphenhyphen1_o7sNfgq08qYJkJ3OE8t099Is83FkcRmxMgmIgyM0pCTrPLxb6AMf1vO_AjCPtyKaaxV1qA3X/s200/ccbbhof.png" width="200" /></a>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMfLI7QAnprRjfRveLmVPekjONl2-KZab-kQ4YRQ3AFPAoZl4ffPiS1icQt9DTisyWXQIo1kNi2tnZUvW7v24G5OulcKN6KQHHSquLldqzZ0weMWrv3WxKYscTsQR9nsCeZnwmH2cabKpz/s1600/DSC01370.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMfLI7QAnprRjfRveLmVPekjONl2-KZab-kQ4YRQ3AFPAoZl4ffPiS1icQt9DTisyWXQIo1kNi2tnZUvW7v24G5OulcKN6KQHHSquLldqzZ0weMWrv3WxKYscTsQR9nsCeZnwmH2cabKpz/s320/DSC01370.JPG" width="320" /></a></class></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Three years ago, I was fortunate enough to see Pedro Martinez get inducted into Cooperstown, and then went on to Fenway to see him #45 get retired. I wrote about that <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.com/2015/08/pe-dro-pe-dro-pe-dro.html" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
<br />
It was such a great experience seeing him and all his fans, that I was excited when I found he was getting <a href="http://baseballhalloffame.ca/uncategorized/pedro-martinez-lloyd-moseby-and-william-humber-to-be-inducted-into-canadian-baseball-hall-of-fame-2" target="_blank">inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame</a>. (We're all well aware he's not Canadian. And no, Canada doesn't have so few players, that they claim anyone born outside of the U.S. as one of their own. But he became a star when he played in Montreal, winning his first Cy Young award there, and was beloved by Expos fans).<br />
<br />
So excited in fact, that I gave up plans I had to see the Red Sox play in Seattle this weekend. Going to Safeco when the Red Sox visit, has become a sort of almost annual tradition. I missed last year's series, which included Rafael Devers making his MLB debut, hitting his first home run, and a <a href="https://amzn.to/2MsRcA1" target="_blank">Sale Day</a>, and didn't want to miss Boston's only trip to Seattle this season. But, a chance to see Pedro trumps that.<br />
<br />
I have had bad luck going to see Pedro. In 2001, when I saw that the Red Sox were playing a four game set in Toronto over a long weekend, I flew there to watch him pitch. They had games from June 29 to July 2nd, and his rotation spot was on July 1st, so even if it got pushed back a day I'd see him. But he got put on the DL right after his start on June 26th. So I got to watch the unforgettable, Rolando Arrojo take his turn in the rotation on <a href="https://amzn.to/2JVkk4H" target="_blank">Canada Day</a> instead. (Note: To his credit, he did his best Pedro imitation in probably the best outing of his career, taking a <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR200107010.shtml" target="_blank">no-hitter into the 7th inning</a>, and leaving with a 2-0 run in the 8th, only having given up one hit).<br />
<br />
Then in 2004 I went to Fort Myers to watch some Spring Training games. Followed the Red Sox throughout the week, catching eight games in total. Pedro only pitched once for two innings. Next time I saw the Red Sox was in Phoenix in March 2005, and Pedro was no longer with the organization.<br />
<br />
Again, as luck would have it, I won't be seeing Pedro this weekend either:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://twitter.com/45PedroMartinez/status/1007283061028020225" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="389" data-original-width="733" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4tWWVUgSMC_o2YMliLFFSnZ1cMd4Z5AKrzMwyQk_LZBCoXnxnhB-2mYgDO0IXYgXOJDHCJbgX_e76ty7ZGPSm837HdDbEYyMzfswdxv2knIIJpJ5NsiG2-cs3rGsGbE2QasOiROiDSVqR/s400/Untitled.jpg" width="500" /></a></div>
<br />
As disappointed as I am, it would be selfish of me to be upset about this. I am more concerned about Pedro and his health. Mejórate pronto! Nos vemos la próxima vez, Pedro.Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-40278819974215397252018-06-07T10:16:00.001-06:002018-06-07T10:16:41.080-06:00WIN 4 Green Monster tickets!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://amzn.to/2xOMkSP" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="320" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjAV7iVN0rSQ4tfpBNTy1gP4YCAwqIy3Ep-F9DPF-D46_DpfqCUvMUQXFOIoprgV_LT0ktLKkHnqUDdHtUueNri1teO-mODKLRJswfOFDGAeodJ26XNxJxM40DzIbwTZ_uBRpnFWZRi6QC/s200/RED.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">As you can see below, the <a href="https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1004399602542501888" target="_blank">Red Sox tweeted</a> about the opportunity for fans to receive the ultimate game-day package to raise money for <a href="http://red.org/" target="_blank">(RED)</a>:</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAmsbddVPcxjHU0UeVX4A0F_xFOMGSB71H_Ka3cD-d8wSMxd-EHiwXAMaGxPW2rsnEhRW0x1G7oASoqH_7mFIMGoBHgaKsfTDbL1f2sbH_UoF_1tcHOnPIB7IQizvo7o0-N8u0T_4FckME/s1600/redsox+red.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="359" data-original-width="780" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAmsbddVPcxjHU0UeVX4A0F_xFOMGSB71H_Ka3cD-d8wSMxd-EHiwXAMaGxPW2rsnEhRW0x1G7oASoqH_7mFIMGoBHgaKsfTDbL1f2sbH_UoF_1tcHOnPIB7IQizvo7o0-N8u0T_4FckME/s400/redsox+red.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
For just $10, fans will be entered for a chance to win the following:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>4 front row Green Monster tickets to the Boston Red Sox vs. the Seattle Mariners on June 22, 2018</li>
<li>4 on-field passes to get an up-close view of the Red Sox batting practice</li>
<li>Access for 1 person to throw out the ceremonial first pitch at the game </li>
<li>On-field photo opportunity for you and your guests</li>
<li>Join an exclusive group tour of the ballpark to learn the history behind Fenway Park</li>
<li>1 (RED) swag bag</li>
<li>Round trip flights within the continental United States and accommodations for you and your guests are covered:</li>
<ul>
<li>Includes two (2) hotel rooms for one (1) night and airfare for four (4) people</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<br />
Fans can enter today at <a href="http://ifonly.com/RedSox">IfOnly.com/RedSox</a>. But hurry up, as the sweepstakes ends on June 15th at 3 PM PST. For those wanting to not leave it to chance they can also bid on a <a href="https://www.ifonly.com/sport/product/118654/vip-suite-for-20-at-fenway-park-field-passes-and-ballpark-tour-at-boston-red-sox-vs-seattle-mariners" target="_blank">suite package</a> that fits 20 people, allowing them on-field access and a tour of the stadium. Both packages benefit (RED). And don't worry, if you can only think of 19 people to go, I know one Canadian who would gladly help you fill up that 20th seat.<br />
<br />
This is a great opportunity to win a once in a lifetime experience for any Red Sox fans, and benefits a great cause. (And sorry to my Canadian (and other) readers, but this contest if only open to US residents).<br />
<br />
Good luck to all!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-43792268899142156852018-03-28T00:43:00.002-06:002018-03-28T00:43:42.351-06:00Red Sox barely miss playoffs!<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://store.esellerate.net/a.asp?c=1_SKU18652915909_AFL9289800948&at=review" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="220" data-original-width="220" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh87nMc1LHKq-u5Oa4nc0-ynyBLL5UaJTelIbM8EVwGx8QfzxhGjWfV8KZ7JxPMG84G6vshImObgDw1Ehfjb244tCp4Ahde-mMPbm0YtJPmyJjvXgceqUgdUPH9XuwJha61wgppVvvAgqJI/s200/OOTP19_Logo_220x220.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The new version of OOTP is out<br />
and it's better than ever!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2018/03/out-of-park-baseball-19-available.html" target="_blank">mentioned last week</a>, I got my hands on the latest version of OOTP. And like I did last year, I started simulating the current season, by naming <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2017/03/out-of-park-baseball-18-now-available.html" target="_blank">myself as Red Sox manager</a>. While last year I played the season slowly, starting around Opening Day and <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2017/10/red-sox-win-2017-world-series.html" target="_blank">finishing during the playoffs,</a> this time I wanted to run through it quickly, in the week I had between getting the game and Opening Day.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX6-NAx5ENW5TzdJA-4btw6etdvtiUqMfZoVJAWakR65kDebRPU9mgy23L-sZtFyjoU5NDz7Dr9G5gVZjS1pd4EGT-qBTJ8DwoSnL6DvxMrfHoCwm2RZI7BVvsz7m9GrvYsKwmUaXfG9YW/s1600/5+gm+win+streak.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="222" data-original-width="609" height="145" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX6-NAx5ENW5TzdJA-4btw6etdvtiUqMfZoVJAWakR65kDebRPU9mgy23L-sZtFyjoU5NDz7Dr9G5gVZjS1pd4EGT-qBTJ8DwoSnL6DvxMrfHoCwm2RZI7BVvsz7m9GrvYsKwmUaXfG9YW/s400/5+gm+win+streak.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
The season started great. By April 20th I firmly had the Yankees in the rear view mirror, already having a 5 and a 6 game win streak. This was largely fueled by Mookie Betts who was on absolute fire, winning April’s player of the month award. And then it happened!<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9vt9Y-DOwGO_ayRcvBgcVUK_odssEjsLs5uTy9bS1bxc4RV736fqDWxazcXGNPwsJU_D5aOqQecVHqfXZ6lblKyXGcm5L3kqsyxk7FPBnsGMlo9HgFrqYjc3tGKc1NyrWaIazlnNoJJFQ/s1600/betts+plr+of+month.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="239" data-original-width="1151" height="132" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9vt9Y-DOwGO_ayRcvBgcVUK_odssEjsLs5uTy9bS1bxc4RV736fqDWxazcXGNPwsJU_D5aOqQecVHqfXZ6lblKyXGcm5L3kqsyxk7FPBnsGMlo9HgFrqYjc3tGKc1NyrWaIazlnNoJJFQ/s640/betts+plr+of+month.jpg" width="560" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The good...............................and the ugly!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Mook hurt himself and was going to be out of the lineup for almost two months. This had a compounding effect on the lineup. JD Martinez would need to play defense in the outfield every day, even in large parks. Hanley and Mitch couldn’t be platooned any longer. Could the Red Sox offence hang on?<br />
<br />
Well, that turned out to be the least of their worries. Within about a 6 week period, we lost Eduardo Rodriguez and Craig Kimbrel for the season, as well as some other arms. And this after I had traded away Brian Johnson because we had too much pitching* (anyone remember Bronson Arroyo?)<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtFJQSCut9UnVpmJNMgjQnzFyTMYv4TYOYy6t5rJBnv2H-0cA6Jc_EZc6H30n2V1sgWMq8RbaVp5cizP760Wk_V4RKywLYQyuNjNu8tcOwq1FZsFmibCE2YMcp0YjTaqHuvr82N4m62-iI/s1600/pitchers+dl.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="275" data-original-width="1021" height="171" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtFJQSCut9UnVpmJNMgjQnzFyTMYv4TYOYy6t5rJBnv2H-0cA6Jc_EZc6H30n2V1sgWMq8RbaVp5cizP760Wk_V4RKywLYQyuNjNu8tcOwq1FZsFmibCE2YMcp0YjTaqHuvr82N4m62-iI/s640/pitchers+dl.jpg" width="560" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Playing the game you quickly learn that no news is good news</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">* Actually, I traded him because I needed a spot when EdRo initially came off the DL. He couldn’t be optioned to Pawtucket without clearing waivers. I figured it was better to get something for him, then lose him for nothing. The real Red Sox are going to be facing similar issues this year. When EdRo, Pomeranz, Wright, Pedroia and Marco Hernandez are ready to play, they will need to make some tough decisions because most of the guys they will replace can’t be stashed in the minors for depth. </span><span style="font-size: x-small;">This is part of what makes this game so great. It gives full control over roster moves, and they mimic the real-life MLB limitations. You can’t send Pablo Sandoval to the minors to open up a roster spot for a Rafael Devers, and then just keep him there just in case.</span><br />
<br />
A lone bright spot in the rotation was Drew Pomeranz throwing a no-hitter in the middle of June:<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwJAs-ufobSZxuD1QDUZDSkGqjHnCVbzoNp4mWVWVazv1WbK0rpWDbej5pVi7RbQjgs6C2Sijyt1pkFEnj5RbGSmNZwMxkzHT5YcmCzdKy3cPxTgvZPYKtOkmdlj9ZsZryKhigNBD4sV67/s1600/pomz+nono.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="645" data-original-width="844" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwJAs-ufobSZxuD1QDUZDSkGqjHnCVbzoNp4mWVWVazv1WbK0rpWDbej5pVi7RbQjgs6C2Sijyt1pkFEnj5RbGSmNZwMxkzHT5YcmCzdKy3cPxTgvZPYKtOkmdlj9ZsZryKhigNBD4sV67/s400/pomz+nono.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">No-no!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0aCpcjCxOzOuoQJhBYmismFhRC4krB6ITZekZCWvoVWsteolLNSNj6zONWWcq4FHPHlwOtlQlLGaT8bv0v36oC-0ROcFHx2HBaydv-tSQYCLMapxQrHLtNuEHcUyhvctSVaQouJ-DX8F4/s1600/al+allstar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="313" data-original-width="456" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0aCpcjCxOzOuoQJhBYmismFhRC4krB6ITZekZCWvoVWsteolLNSNj6zONWWcq4FHPHlwOtlQlLGaT8bv0v36oC-0ROcFHx2HBaydv-tSQYCLMapxQrHLtNuEHcUyhvctSVaQouJ-DX8F4/s320/al+allstar.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
But our offense somehow kept carrying the team, and we were hanging on to the second wild card spot at the all-start break, and had SIX players in the American League's starting lineup.<br />
Shortly after that, our pitching could no longer keep up and by the trade deadline we were in third place, and barely fighting for the last playoff spot. I got desperate, and since I had the luxury of only planning on playing one season, I traded some top prospects to the Twins to get Ervin Santana and Addison Reed to bolster our starting pitching and bullpen. <br />
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</div>
They helped a bit, but despite a valiant effort, the Red Sox finished with 89 wins and just missed the playoffs. The Yankees, led by Judge and Stanton’s combined 120 home runs won the East, with the Blue Jays getting a wildcard with their 93 wins. Indians took the Central easily, and in a bit of a surprise, the Mariners beat out the Astros with 92 wins to Houston's 90 which was one more than the Red Sox for the last wildcard. Some Red Sox season highlights included Andrew Benintendi taking the batting title, and Rafael Devers knocking in 136 runs.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_pS46GQSJ9lIKtwH-CM5rJiibXjepVahGueEuKJUA9bKKg3kkq44Gh4IGMDyEZwLGZyW-BcfOmw3eBlIL_dlbh6i1riKxxYZdWR7Bep0Br_RlNAEsKeoLT6CavbLB37pdXimgerh8EMf7/s1600/batting+champ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="203" data-original-width="673" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_pS46GQSJ9lIKtwH-CM5rJiibXjepVahGueEuKJUA9bKKg3kkq44Gh4IGMDyEZwLGZyW-BcfOmw3eBlIL_dlbh6i1riKxxYZdWR7Bep0Br_RlNAEsKeoLT6CavbLB37pdXimgerh8EMf7/s400/batting+champ.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Now that the real season is about to start, and I'll replay this at a more leisurely pace, and try to get the Red Sox in the playoffs.<br />
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Meanwhile, take advantage of 10% off launch week to get your own copy until March 29th<br />
<br />
<a href="http://store.esellerate.net/a.asp?c=1_SKU18652915909_AFL9289800948&at=review"><img alt="Buy OOTP Baseball 19 PC & Mac" border="0" src="http://www.esellerate.net/images/banners/buy_button_13.png" /></a>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://store.esellerate.net/a.asp?c=1_SKU18652915909_AFL9289800948&at=review" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1440" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZIfwSZOs4Wi79pjoJX-A4Z3k7IC2zuPyuWc_64AflBwxbpUD52QL-Z4ZOMfI1qmB2HJPjkh4xIB1u0B39Hdd_dxivyC-tvJ57E2J2-8SBbtgc8tb_kQm8l6hX6Yq9aWmqy9l7kfPLRA7r/s640/entry.jpg" width="560" /></a></div>
<br />Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-87040168435533582692018-03-22T18:49:00.000-06:002018-03-22T18:49:04.829-06:00Out of the Park Baseball 19 Available!<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://amzn.to/2ILw3PJ" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="395" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1R6cx-8UELzufj0hbj7vRbbdu5ye0GyrOJfasLIs3OkGxoB3-3mNy1_YJwcFbkSKnXLT39xrS3Dv24-T2Y92JzMbXGF8vdTeEu5F_MUolihDvznQW2kOurXfWxvtA67s2UoqR8IBiIsj_/s320/seinfeld.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This is how I feel right now!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
That time of the year is finally here!<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://t.co/p6CKtmzVuc" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZRWoAJsj2GeEP66GREOPcAmr0w24YBOCPFLADwiQ-WCzJiNLVwIRtaYIhkkn2RLITtvEF1IqO7ZHkcjxjfG0GV8KjIzLY9U8u8H0-PIam2N2TJTC9nJw8JQg2RY6uybMpt0LQ_sJCJFRe/s320/Fenway.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">In game play at Fenway Pahk!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Yes, I know it's still one week until Opening Day, but OOTP has released its latest version of Out of the Park Baseball, and I've got my hands on it! I'll be playing it soon and write a review shortly, but for now, here is a copy of their official press release.<br />
<br />
Also, on March 28 at 7 PM Eastern time, MLB Network will feature the results of a 2018 season & playoffs simulation conducted in OOTP 19. Last year, OOTP 18 (as well as some <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2017/03/2017-season-predictions.html" target="_blank">random Canadian Red Sox blogger</a>) correctly predicted that the Houston Astros would win the World Series.<br />
<br />
If you want to get your hands on a copy of this, you can get it <a href="https://t.co/p6CKtmzVuc" target="_blank">here</a>. Save 10% for the next 7 days. If you're still unsure, check out the trailer below:<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/2YlrO72dTGE/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2YlrO72dTGE?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">March 22, 2018</span></b><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Out of the Park Baseball 19</span></i></b><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> Now Available Worldwide</span></b><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">OOTP 19</span></i></b><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> features dramatic 3D enhancements, a redesigned interface, new
scouting systems, ultra-realistic artificial intelligence, 2018 Opening Day
rosters, and more!</span></b><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Out of the Park Developments,
an official licensee of MLB.com, the Major League Baseball
Players Association, and <a href="http://ootpdevelopments.dmanalytics1.net/click?u=http%3A%2F%2Fmilb.com&i=8&d=DM-D61hBRuScNLINsm6wmw&e=rsnalberta%40gmail.com&a=7T_G0FtQQryd9YP2cbBmfw" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc;">MiLB.com</span></a>, announced
today that <i>Out of the Park Baseball 19</i> is
available worldwide, ahead of the start of the 2018
Major League Baseball season on March 29. </span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">OOTP 19</span></i><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> offers dozens of exciting
new features and deep improvements to its award-winning gameplay including a
dramatic 3D in-game engine that shows players pitching, hitting, fielding, and
running the bases. Images of the new in-game engine
can be found in the screenshot bundle and in the trailer.</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Out of the Park Baseball 19 includes:</span></b><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">New 3D stadiums and 3D player models
with improved on-field movements, including running, sliding, jumping, and
throwing.</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">New in-game screen design for an
optimized virtual dugout.</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">2018 roster sets with all Opening Day
MLB rosters, as well as the complete minor league system from
Triple-A to rookie leagues and the Arizona Fall League. All Major
League (and over a thousand minor league) player ratings will be based on the popular
ZiPS player projection system. The 8 international leagues, as well
as independent minor leagues in the US, also return this year with
accurate rosters.</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Rewritten scouting reports that give
a more detailed and realistic look at players.</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">New tournament modes! Create a
stand-alone tournament bracket and draw any teams in history into it. The possibilities
are endless!</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Ultra-realistic AI roster management
and in-game decisions.</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">A reworked ratings module.</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">User voting for end-of-season awards.</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Many more improvements, including:</span></b><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Redesigned interface, with the ability
to choose between 6 different fonts</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">800 custom team logos for fictional
leagues</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Improved Manager Home screen, with a
more customizable layout and new widget options</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">A new stat -- RA9-WAR (WAR based on
runs allowed) -- for pitchers</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 9.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Delayed substitutions for injured
players</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">And much more!</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">This summer, Out of the Park Developments
will unveil an exciting new online mode called <b>PERFECT TEAM</b>. An
open Beta will happen this spring, and the company will announce more
information soon.</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Customers can purchase <i>OOTP 19</i> for
$39.99 from OOTP Developments through <a href="https://t.co/p6CKtmzVuc" target="_blank">this link:</a></span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">OOTP 19</span></i><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> is also available on Steam:</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt;"><a href="http://ootpdevelopments.dmanalytics1.net/click?u=http%3A%2F%2Fstore.steampowered.com%2Fapp%2F619290%2FOut_of_the_Park_Baseball_19%2F&i=10&d=DM-D61hBRuScNLINsm6wmw&e=rsnalberta%40gmail.com&a=7T_G0FtQQryd9YP2cbBmfw" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc;">http://store.steampowered.com/app/619290/Out_of_the_Park_Baseball_19/</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 9.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">And on Electronic Arts’ Origin:</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt;"><a href="https://www.dmanalytics1.net/click?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.origin.com%2Fstore%2Fout-of-the-park-baseball%2Fout-of-the-park-baseball-19%2Fstandard-edition&i=11&d=DM-D61hBRuScNLINsm6wmw&e=rsnalberta%40gmail.com&a=7T_G0FtQQryd9YP2cbBmfw" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc;">https://www.origin.com/store/</span><span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration-line: none;">out</span><span style="color: #1155cc;">-</span><span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration-line: none;">of</span><span style="color: #1155cc;">-</span><span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration-line: none;">the</span><span style="color: #1155cc;">-</span><span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration-line: none;">park</span><span style="color: #1155cc;">-baseball/</span><span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration-line: none;">out</span><span style="color: #1155cc;">-</span><span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration-line: none;">of</span><span style="color: #1155cc;">-</span><span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration-line: none;">the</span><span style="color: #1155cc;">-</span><span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration-line: none;">park</span><span style="color: #1155cc;">-baseball-</span><span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration-line: none;">19</span><span style="color: #1155cc;">/standard-edition</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 9.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">OOTP 19</span></i><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> runs on PC/Mac/Linux and like
last year it features the American League and National League
logos, the World Series trophy, official logos and jerseys for all 30
MLB teams, over 150 Minor League Baseball league and team logos, and historical
MLB logos.</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">OOTP</span></i><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> creator Markus Heinsohn
conducted an interview for the Out of the Park Developments
blog which can be read here: <a href="http://ootpdevelopments.dmanalytics1.net/click?u=http%3A%2F%2Fblog.ootpdevelopments.com%2Fan-interview-with-ootp-creator-markus-heinsohn%2F&i=12&d=DM-D61hBRuScNLINsm6wmw&e=rsnalberta%40gmail.com&a=7T_G0FtQQryd9YP2cbBmfw" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc;">http://blog.ootpdevelopments.com/an-interview-with-</span><span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration-line: none;">ootp</span><span style="color: #1155cc;">-creator-markus-heinsohn/</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">OOTP 19</span></i></b><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"> predicts the 2018 season</span></b><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">On </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt;">March 28 at 7
PM Eastern time</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">, MLB Network will feature the results of the 2018
season + playoffs simulation conducted in OOTP 19. Last year, the game
predicted that the Houston Astros would win the World
Series. Will it make the right call again?</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">A look back at <i>OOTP 18</i></span></b><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">2017 was a record-setting year
for Out of the Park Developments, which boasted more
than 120,000 players of <i>OOTP 18</i> around the world.
More than 3.5 million hours of the game were played on Steam,
which equals 405 years. A record peak of 1,147 concurrent players was
set on Nov. 9 on Steam, and South Korea is now number two in total
sales, surpassing Canada.</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The most-accomplished
achievement in <i>OOTP 18</i> was a five-game team winning
streak and the three rarest achievements were a player hitting 4 home
runs in a game (accomplished by 0.4% of users), a pitcher tossing a
perfect game (0.5%), and a hitter having 10 or more RBI in a game (0.6%).</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Quotes from OOTP Developments executives</span></b><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">“After nearly 20 years of development, we’re still finding ways to make Out of the Park Baseball even better,” said lead developer, lifelong baseball fan, and Out of the Park Developments CEO Markus Heinsohn. “We can’t wait for our fans to see what we have in store this year.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">“Out of the Park Baseball
is unique. Its high quality, delivered over two decades, has created
generations of loyal fans who recognize it as the gold standard of sports
strategy games,” saidOut of the Park Developments CMO
Richard Grisham. “<i>Out of the Park Baseball 19</i> is
our best version yet, purpose-built for those fans. We couldn’t be more excited
for it.”</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">About Out of the Park Developments </span></b><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Out of the Park Developments
is the developer of the award-winning <i>OOTP</i> and <i>MLB
Manager</i> series of baseball management simulations, <i>Franchise
Hockey Manager</i>, and <i>Beyond theSideline Football</i>.
German-based <i>OOTP Developments</i> was founded by Markus
Heinsohn and Andreas Raht in 1999. OOTP Developments has consistently
produced games that have met with critical acclaim, including winning
Metacritic's coveted “PC Game of the Year” for the 2016
version of <i>OOTP</i> and "Game of the Year"
for the 2007 edition of <i>OOTP</i>, which remains thesecond
highest-rated PC game on Metacritic of all time. Further information
on the company and its games is available from the OOTP Developments
website,<a href="http://ootpdevelopments.dmanalytics1.net/click?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ootpdevelopments.com&i=13&d=DM-D61hBRuScNLINsm6wmw&e=rsnalberta%40gmail.com&a=7T_G0FtQQryd9YP2cbBmfw" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc;">http://www.ootpdevelopments.com</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">About <a href="http://ootpdevelopments.dmanalytics1.net/click?u=http%3A%2F%2Fmlb.com&i=14&d=DM-D61hBRuScNLINsm6wmw&e=rsnalberta%40gmail.com&a=7T_G0FtQQryd9YP2cbBmfw" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc;">MLB.com</span></a></span></b><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Established in June 2000 following a
unanimous vote by the 30 Major League Baseball club owners to
centralize all of Baseball’s Internet operations, MLB Advanced Media
LP (MLBAM) isthe interactive media and internet company of Major
League Baseball. MLBAM manages the official league site, MLB.com,and
each of the 30 individual Club sites to create the most
comprehensive Major League Baseball resource on the Internet. <a href="http://ootpdevelopments.dmanalytics1.net/click?u=http%3A%2F%2Fmlb.com&i=15&d=DM-D61hBRuScNLINsm6wmw&e=rsnalberta%40gmail.com&a=7T_G0FtQQryd9YP2cbBmfw" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc;">MLB.com</span></a> offers
fans the most complete baseball information and interactivity across
computers and mobile devices, including up-to-date statistics, game previews
and summaries, extensive historical information, online ticket sales, baseball
merchandise, authenticated memorabilia and collectibles, fantasy games, live
full-game video streaming and in-progress and on-demand highlights, live and
archived audio broadcasts, Gameday pitch-by-pitch application, Statcast
tracking technology, around-the-clock hosted and specialty video programming,
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Major League Baseball Players
Association</span></b><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">The Major League Baseball Players Association (</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://ootpdevelopments.dmanalytics1.net/click?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlbplayers.com&i=16&d=DM-D61hBRuScNLINsm6wmw&e=rsnalberta%40gmail.com&a=7T_G0FtQQryd9YP2cbBmfw" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">www.mlbplayers.com</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">) is the collective</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">bargaining
representative for all professional baseball players of the thirty
Major League</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">baseball teams and serves as the exclusive group licensing
agent for commercial and licensing</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">activities involving active Major
League baseball players. On behalf of its members, it operates</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">the Players
Choice licensing program and Players Choice Awards, which benefit the needy</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">through the Major
League Baseball Players Trust, a charitable foundation established and run</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">entirely by Major
League baseball players. In 2017, the MLBPA launched Infield Chatter,
an</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">innovative social
media app created by the Players for the fans and available
in the App Store</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">and Google Play. Follow: @MLB_Players;
@MLBPAClubhouse; @MLBPlayersTrust.;</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">@InfieldChatter</span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span> <o:p></o:p></div>
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Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-6294314345098193872018-03-07T06:30:00.000-07:002018-03-07T06:30:49.667-07:00Playing Pepper - 2018 Red Sox Preview<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://amzn.to/2CYmNnh" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1160" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyv7n32JDMVd3pNEXlvm197lDXd6SJbZ2BuD3xOsm8ZQ_KFw_IBhfAq-ZbwByiSlk51bSIBBoLTb5iYKZtE4nvQNt6K9ZHjbtOZxLqxH_-5c5R7dx-qknzf-1WCsydJkZljV4j45lZ4LyF/s320/price+happy.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Which David Price will show up this season?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Time for the annual Playing Pepper preview hosted at the Cardinals C70 website, which previews every team. I was again one of the writers asked to answer some questions on the Red Sox. Below are the questions and answers, which are now also up on the <a href="http://www.cardsconclave.com/c70/" target="_blank">C70 blog</a>. Check there daily for previews of the other MLB teams.<br />
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<b>1. What are your thoughts on the offseason? Did the club improve over the winter?</b><br />
Until the middle of February, saying it was a slow off-season would have been an overstatement. Other than signing Mitch Moreland (who was our regular 1st baseman last year, so not much of a change there), the only other announcement was with someone named <a href="https://www.craftbeer.com/news/brewery-news/sam-adams-boston-red-sox-announce-new-partnership" target="_blank">Sam Adams</a> – who I doubt could hit a major league fastball. Anyhow, once spring training got rolling, the Red Sox made some moves that have undoubtedly improved the team. First of all they signed Eddie Nunez, who will presumably fill in for Dustin Pedroia until his activation from the DL, and then will be a super-sub utility player. And then they finally signed JD Martinez – like everyone had been waiting for since November – to be a middle of the order power bat/ DH / 4th outfielder. The Red Sox were sorely lacking in the power department last season, so this was the main area of improvement they needed, and they accomplished that with the best player they could acquire without a trade.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br />
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<b>2. It’s David Price’s third year with the club. What are your expectations for him this season?</b><br />
He is very motivated and determined to show Boston fans what he can do. He showed a glimpse of what he’s still capable of in the playoffs last season when he threw 6.2 scoreless innings in relief against the high powered Astros offence. If he remains healthy, I think we'll see more of that this year, as he silences his critics.<br />
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<b>3. What’s one thing people may overlook (either positively or negatively) about this team?</b><br />
The payroll is VERY close to the de facto limit. A lot of smaller market teams assume that the Red Sox (and Yankees and a few others) can always just throw money at a problem, and buy whoever they need, should a need arise. To an extent that’s true, but I think people are overlooking just how strained the Red Sox ability to make any roster upgrades could be this year. They have blown past the $197 Million limit where they have to pay a 20% tax on every dollar they are over, as well as the $217MM with its 32% luxury tax penalty. It’s just money, and John Henry has lots of it, so these limits shouldn’t bother any Red Sox fan. But they are very close to $237MM and at that point not only is there a 74.5% tax to pay on any additional salary, but there are draft pick and slot bonus penalties which need to be avoided at all costs. Although the Boston bench has several players capable of filling in for the short term, if there is a serious injury to a key player, the Red Sox may not have the financial room to acquire a replacement, and that could easily torpedo the season.<br />
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<b>4. Who is the one key player, the guy that must have a good year for the Red Sox to do well?</b><br />
There are several players whose performance range can be predicted with a strong degree of confidence. Guys like Chris Sale, Betts, JDM, Kimbrel, whom you know (barring injury) what you’re going to get from them – they’re either going to be very good or great. There are others with a wider range of probable outcomes, but the lineup can be shuffled around and they can be replaced if they slump (such as Hanley), or not much is being expected of them anyways (any of the catchers). The player for whom there is no apparent replacement if he declines is Xander Bogaerts. If he bounces back from a disappointing 2017 campaign, then he’s another bat in the middle of a lineup that suddenly looks very strong. But if he has a long stretch like last summer (.198 with 3 HRs in July and August), then the Red Sox offense could be very disappointing.<br />
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<b>5. What’s your projection for 2018? Where does the team wind up overall?</b><br />
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I picked the Red Sox to win their division with 93 games <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2017/02/playing-pepper-2017.html" target="_blank">last year</a>, and that’s exactly what they did! (I know, I know…. something about blind squirrels and nuts). Anyhow, in spite of the Yankees having seemingly improved in the off-season, I’m predicting the Red Sox to repeat as division champions, needing only 91 wins. </div>
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<b>6. What’s one question I should have asked and what’s the answer to it?</b><br />
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"Which player do I wish the Red Sox still had on their roster?"</div>
Adrian Beltre. He had a great stint in Boston in his one year here in 2010. That offseason, the Red Sox instead of trying to re-sign him, opted to trade for Adrian Gonzalez who would play first base, and move Kevin Youkilis across the diamond to third base, where Beltre had been. Beltre eventually signed with Texas for 6/$96, while AGon got a 7/$154 deal from Boston. Unfortunately Youkilis was a much better defensive first baseman than he was at the hot corner, and Gonzalez left Boston prior to his 2nd year in the infamous Nick Punto trade. Since then, Boston has had difficulty filling the position, using Wil Middlebrooks, Travis Shaw, Pablo Sandoval, and Aaron Hill among others. Rafael Devers looks like he may be there to stay now, but one wonders how much better our infield defense and lineup would have been with Beltre there the past seven seasons.Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-42294571690663625092018-02-20T07:00:00.000-07:002018-02-20T07:00:16.191-07:00The Importance of Winning the Off-Season<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://amzn.to/2ERWEeY" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="332" data-original-width="260" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinMQy880fLr53s2ZM4ofHWk-u4hiOouzMi9a2TCvdz4vYchV38huHDaiKQL6NOj5QOVZI2SNo198DiemZ0rbBFg2QTKISYC5aTSs4Z_0htubhVSq2GpDv5i_b3JwwLxLvXCgW7gD9g-EDY/s320/angels.jpg" width="249" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Are we going to see this image in October?<br />
Doubtful</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
It's over. The Anaheim Angels got Shohei Ohtani and traded for Ian Kinsler.<br />
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And the Yankees have added Giancarlo Stanton who's going to hit 100 home runs at Yankee Stadium to a lineup that already featured Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner.....<br />
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Meanwhile not a lot of changes were seen around Fenway Park. (editor's note: This article was originally written prior to the Red Sox signing JD Martinez)<br />
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Does this mean that the results of the season are a foregone conclusion? Before getting ahead of ourselves, let's remember there's a reason they play the games on the field during the season, and not in the front office in the winter.<br />
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Here is a look at some recent teams that have "won" the off-season, and how they fared:<br />
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<u>2014-15 Red Sox offseason</u><br />
After winning the World Series in 2013, the Red Sox collapsed and ended up in last place in 2014. The Red Sox wasted no time ensuring they'd escape a simar fate, by signing both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval within 24 hours of each other before November was over, committing up to $205 million (if Hanley's 2019 option vests) between the two. Well, instead of finishing in last place with 71 wins, these moves helped them finish in last place with 78 wins. And they're still paying Sandoval's salary while he's playing back in San Francisco.<br />
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<u>2013-14 New York Yankees</u><br />
In what was a surprise to nobody, after an 85 win, 3rd place season, Yankees ownership opened up their wallets in a big way, committing close to a half BILLION dollars in one off season. This was spread out over several players including: Jacoby Ellsbury - coming off a good season where he led the league in steals and was 15th in MVP voting - getting $153 million; Japanase sensation Masahiro Tanaka (24-0, 1.27 ERA in Japan) for $155 million; Brian McCaan who had been an all-star catcher seven of the past eight seasons for $85 million; Carlos Beltran who despite his age, was coming off back to back all star seasons, and rewarded with a $45 million 3 year contract. All these moves resulted in the Yankees finishing the 2014 season with one less win and several hundred million dollars less than they had in 2013.<br />
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<u>2013-2014 Texas Rangers</u><br />
The Yankees weren't the only team that spent money improving after a dissapointing 2013 season. As you may recall, the Rangers almost won the World Series in 2011, twice being one strike away from the Championship. And they were itching to return. Unfortunately, after losing the division in 2012 by a single game, they were eliminated in the wildcard match, and in 2013 they missed the playoffs by one game. If either season they had won one extra contest, they might have had a chance to go back to the World Series and redeem themselves. So they made a few moves, including trading for an in-his-prime, 29 year old Prince Fielder, and Shin-Soo Choo, who was coming off one on his best seasons, where he was 12th in MVP voting. So, how close were they to winning the division in 2014 after these moves? How about 31 games! They fell all the way from 91 wins to 67.<br />
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<u>2012-13 Toronto Blue Jays </u><br />
The Blue Jays won 73 games in 2012, and wanted to make some changes to be able to compete. So they made some trades and signings which netted them Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson Mark Buerhle, and RA Dickey. Dickey was the reigning Cy Young winner, and Mark Buerhle had been the staff ace in both Miami and Chicago. Meanwhile Josh Johnson was only 2 seasons removed from a 5th place Cy Young. This pitching staff along with the improved offence that already featured sluggers such as Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Colby Rasmus had Canadian fans excited for the upcoming season. But the improvement they saw on the field was minimal, as the 2013 Jays increased their win total to just 74 games.<br />
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<u>2011-12 Florida Marlins</u><br />
It may be hard to believe, but there once was a time - long before the <a href="https://elitesportsny.com/2017/05/13/remember-derek-jeter-lets-not-forget-horrid-defense/" target="_blank">worst defensive player in the history of the sport</a> took over the team - when the Marlins paid players and tried to compete. Heading into 2012, Jeffrey Loria opened up his wallet, and spent about $200 Million on Heath Bell - a top closer coming off three straight 40+ save all-star seasons - Jose Reyes, an all-star shortstop, reigning batting champion, and premiere leadoff hitter, and 4 time all star starter Mark Burhle. The net effect of these moves, is they lost three more gams in the 2012 campaign than they had in 2011, finishing last both seasons.<br />
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<u>2010-11 Orioles</u><br />
After the 2010 season, the Orioles - who had finished with a measly 66 wins and scored the second fewest runs in the league - tried to improve on their offence. And that they did! They added Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee and Vlad Guerrero to give them some pop. These moves certainly helped, as they improved their win total all the way up to.... 67! Offseason winnings garnered them a whole extra victory.<br />
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<u>2010-11 Red So</u><u>x</u><br />
The only reason the Orioles' moves weren't more herladed was that they weren't even the team with the biggest paper improvements in their own division. The Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez and signed Carl Crawford within a week. They also signed Andrew Miller, and some other bullpen arms after the 2010 season. It wasn't just Red Sox fans that thought this would put them over the top, most analysts had them as favorites after their off-season moves.<br />
One typical artcile I found said:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Red Sox are the clear-cut winners of this offseason. Adding 1B Adrian Gonzalez alone may have them considered among the top teams in the American League. But the additional signing of OF Carl Crawford may have <b>made them favorites in baseball</b>.<br />
…adding RP Dan Wheeler and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks. … the Red Sox may have the <b>best bullpen in baseball</b> when it’s all said and done"</blockquote>
As you may recall, the 2011 season ended with their manager getting fired. And only getting rid of AGon and Crawford late in the 2012 last place season helped get the franchise back on its feet.<br />
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So, what is the correlation between winning the off-season, and regular season improvements? If the above examples didn't make it clear, here is a very scientfic looking chart that I just made up:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4FA7lySaf0vp4mo-ROTWUJ_kPrBQ_687C_Zofj3febT4js6aG4K6jLGvqFgvA6JNc5i8VQ1il6XBtsS6xiJ4XWB3C2kXzFmI9wQpit58UtBsobdbyHDhYFFQWDnz7vAzRQkNiCu4QZdyK/s1600/NoCorrelation1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="489" data-original-width="615" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4FA7lySaf0vp4mo-ROTWUJ_kPrBQ_687C_Zofj3febT4js6aG4K6jLGvqFgvA6JNc5i8VQ1il6XBtsS6xiJ4XWB3C2kXzFmI9wQpit58UtBsobdbyHDhYFFQWDnz7vAzRQkNiCu4QZdyK/s320/NoCorrelation1.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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If you don't understand advanced statistics, or correlation coefficients, a better explanation of how teams that have perceived success in the offseason are more likely to win games once the season starts is explained <a href="http://howdovaccinescauseautism.com/" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
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Anyhow, in spite of winning the off-season,historically not being a precursor to having a good regular season, I am very glad that JD Martinez is now a member of the Boston Red Sox! Let the games begin.Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-48111089856896617252017-10-24T17:28:00.001-06:002017-10-24T17:28:02.192-06:002017 Prediction Results<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://amzn.to/2gHLP5j"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="600" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgadd_Mnire2GBhMf9B3Yaue9zqt-4Od412tYWi46JBkxKoi10gpPbpJ_myy8xTimLSAgADDP9omrQYjIxRlKU3UHyDg-tzci2jJr5IzKryFk899viLkHoQFALNzP0DFbAz5UN3Aup-s6Y9/s400/SIAstros062514.jpg" width="302" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">I wasn't the only one predicting an Astros Championship</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Prior to the start of the season, I made <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2017/03/2017-season-predictions.html" target="_blank">some predictions </a>on how each team would fare. I received some comments (mainly through my <a href="https://twitter.com/BaseballRuben" target="_blank">@baseballruben</a> twitter), including a couple of compliments (one each from Houston and Tampa Bay fans – it’s easy to remember the accolades when there are so few), and lots of hate mail (a typical one was this Cubs fan who said “you SERIOUSLY don’t think they’ll win the pennant again?”).<br />
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Anyhow, now that the season is just about over time to see how those predictions played out.<br />
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There were some good ones: I correctly picked five of the division winners and had Houston winning the AL pennant. I had 7 teams that I picked their exact record within 1 game (Boston, Tampa, Baltimore, Kansas City, White Sox, Washington and Colorado). Speaking of the Rockies, I also said they would make the playoffs. While not predicting playoffs, I did say that the Diamondbacks would be much improved, and that the Twins would be one of the most improved teams in the league.<br />
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There were also some comically bad ones: I said not to count the Tigers out and had them winning the wildcard. They ended up in last place – by just one game – behind the Giants who I had winning the NL West. I had the Brewers dropping to 65 wins from the 73 they had in 2016, and they contended most of the season, ending up with 86 wins.<br />
<a name='more'></a>Overall, I was off by an average of 8 wins per team (in other words, if I picked a team to win 80 games they probably only won 72… or 88). On the surface, that doesn’t sound great. Well, what if someone had just picked every team to win the same number of games they had in 2016? They would have been off by an average of 10 games! Your record would be largely skewed by the aforementioned Tigers and Giants who won 22 and 24 fewer games, as well as the Diamondbacks and Twins who won 24 and 26 more compared to their previous season. This is why using some analysis is better than picking what happened in the past. But, don’t overthink it too much! If you had predicted every team to end up with an identical 81-81 record, you would actually do better than predicting a repeat of the 2016 season – an average of 9 games off how they finished. No one should be surprised by this. It is the “mean to regression” theory at work.<br />
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Ok, so my analysis beat blindly picking the same records as 2016, or picking everyone to end up at .500. Big deal. How about I compare my record to some other “experts”? Well, I took a look at <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-mlb-predictions/" target="_blank">538’s preseason predictions</a> (scroll down and select Forecast from march 31 for their preseason picks). And you know what? Ours were equally good (or bad). We both predicted the Indians to win their division with 94 wins and Houston theirs with 90. Good that we had the right division winner, bad that we were off by a combined 19 wins just between those two teams!<br />
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Here is the full spreadsheet showing my predictions against these other methods. (click to see larger version). Cells in green are good predictions, red ones are poor ones. You can see some patterns as all methods did poorly forecasting the Giants and Tigers fall, or Milwaukee’s rise.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUY5ydiWW8WPe4Bd09x-ZlLcvvB-iscEh51a7DHtEG-HTPNJh_EWSVaT6bZYbGKAD6_McgNNcl8KpGK1FjKmcyuhHqlxSnMjYnyc_Vi5gbGna0JMx3-YARR_D1mvXQUWTQ582tnYCjrP84/s1600/pred17results.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="825" data-original-width="940" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUY5ydiWW8WPe4Bd09x-ZlLcvvB-iscEh51a7DHtEG-HTPNJh_EWSVaT6bZYbGKAD6_McgNNcl8KpGK1FjKmcyuhHqlxSnMjYnyc_Vi5gbGna0JMx3-YARR_D1mvXQUWTQ582tnYCjrP84/s400/pred17results.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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At least if the Astros beat the Dodgers, I’ll have correctly picked the World Series winner.<br />
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Maybe next year I’ll simulate the entire season on <a href="http://store.esellerate.net/a.asp?c=0_SKU95443183708_AFL9289800948&at=WS17" target="_blank">OOTP </a>during Spring Training, and post my results here.<br />
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<br />Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-43978243336746276922017-10-23T19:46:00.002-06:002017-10-23T19:46:51.567-06:00Red Sox win 2017 World Series!<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUudFDafna2Jj64VA9rejy0XwwrErRgKTjq2jD5DntCT1DqoYeEkldzAvZZ3ODdEmC0Ubp8IzbUboL_OU6capPEEmOnuFYuAuwVqjQJSRXMfXOr2FD16PGUtfD8_TM-Puvx0lG3AgeFlD6/s1600/playoff+result.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="1600" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUudFDafna2Jj64VA9rejy0XwwrErRgKTjq2jD5DntCT1DqoYeEkldzAvZZ3ODdEmC0Ubp8IzbUboL_OU6capPEEmOnuFYuAuwVqjQJSRXMfXOr2FD16PGUtfD8_TM-Puvx0lG3AgeFlD6/s400/playoff+result.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Playoff bracket results</td></tr>
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My previous OOTP update was at the end of the regular season, when the Red Sox had made the playoffs and would be facing the Houston Astros in the LDS. <br />
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[Editor's note: <i>If you haven't been following my OOTP simulation all season, here are the links to quickly get caught up, the rest of you can skip past this italicized part</i><br />
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<i><a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2017/03/out-of-park-baseball-18-now-available.html" target="_blank">Preseason </a>- hired "Baseball Ruben" to manage team, much to Boston media's chagrin</i><br />
<i><a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2017/07/virtual-red-sox-in-ootp-at-all-star.html" target="_blank">All-Star break update </a>- Overcame multiple injuries to be in first place at the break</i><br />
<i><a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2017/10/ootp-end-of-season-results.html" target="_blank">End of Regular Season</a> - Staved off competition to end in first place, and ready for the playoffs.</i>]<br />
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On the playoff off nights, I've been playing the OOTP playoffs and just finished. As you could tell from this post's title, I ended up with a much better result than the guys who play their home games at Fenway Park.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPNCWX2lKxHkXaT73h5far4exJ7NKX6toTOe26zNYV54noS7PPJ-2-Pxb0ltL4JyT0FrIRfwN2ZSGl8GmLJ3VrGZZ8ExquAec2e1qdHS8WqGDvDARLqsTfUL0OkmyM3eHr7-fuBwSIbcNw/s1600/sox+sweep+astros.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="324" data-original-width="617" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPNCWX2lKxHkXaT73h5far4exJ7NKX6toTOe26zNYV54noS7PPJ-2-Pxb0ltL4JyT0FrIRfwN2ZSGl8GmLJ3VrGZZ8ExquAec2e1qdHS8WqGDvDARLqsTfUL0OkmyM3eHr7-fuBwSIbcNw/s320/sox+sweep+astros.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">LDS Sweep recap</td></tr>
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First of all, I easily advanced to the ALCS. The first two games were close, but Game 3 was a 10-1 laugher. Christian Vazquez only started 2 of the games but was named MVP.<br />
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Meanwhile had to wait a few days to see who would win the Indians/Yankees Series.<br />
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Just like a couple of week ago, that Series went the full 5 games. But in this one, Cleveland was victorious setting up a repeat of the 2007 ALCS showdown with them.<br />
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The Red Sox lost the first game, but then won the next three, setting up a possible clinching Game 5 at Fenway Park. It went back and forth until the Red Sox tied it in the 7th on a Benintendi double. Game stayed knotted up at six until the bottom of the 9th, when Boston's first two batters reached. You could hear a buzz all around Fenway as Mookie Betts stepped to the plate with the pennant winning run on second base! And as he hit a hard shot down the 3rd base line, the crowd quickly erupted, but Carlos Santana silenced them just as quickly by stabbing it and going around the horn for a double play. This brought up Hanley Ramirez who was batting .167 in the postseason, and the reason I was under a lot of criticism by sticking with him. I could hear people in the twitterverse begging me to use a pinch hitter. Well, it didn't matter who was at the plate, because Andrew Miller uncorked a wild pitch as Xander Bogaerts crossed the plate on the way to the World Series!!! A pennant clinching wild pitch walk-off!<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL5aahQ6rTsm3g_LeeeGa3b_hUx_8rfVfCAjFMBw0BSdKGnXM9VwT7laJttvcMCDQ-8WKzZnbpzWOM_FH4lF52nLrp7JCqrIAp8yCgilUqtEANnzero0IS2phrk1GWZ_DaRU81nSHOMBZV/s1600/walkoff.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="582" data-original-width="741" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL5aahQ6rTsm3g_LeeeGa3b_hUx_8rfVfCAjFMBw0BSdKGnXM9VwT7laJttvcMCDQ-8WKzZnbpzWOM_FH4lF52nLrp7JCqrIAp8yCgilUqtEANnzero0IS2phrk1GWZ_DaRU81nSHOMBZV/s400/walkoff.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A WILD bottom of the 9th!</td></tr>
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So, it was on to LA to face the Dodgers and their MLB best 105 wins (this game does mimic real life very well) in the World Series!<br />
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None of the first four games were close, with the teams alternating blowout wins as they headed into Game 5 tied at 2. The Red Sox trailed 4-2 in the 7th, when Hanley Ramirez hit a 3 run home run which ended up being the difference in that contest. After an off day, the Series shifted back to LA, and Boston easily won Game 6 to take the championship. Coincidentally, it was 13 years to the date that they won it all for the first time in our lifetimes in 2004 (unless I have centenarians reading my blog).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDQrEI5fjIShW8KkNw7qUq7sKlEzdSAMyFCMyuV7b9LxwPUTjl2mfMLxj-XfQrNjA2dhtZULF4X90OJJ6g8yNJZvWaU7m5DUo3odBKqrrPabOG-zzEITJkbNrXfWvQwwsM2DEIHUIZEcOt/s1600/playoffs+win+ws.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="705" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDQrEI5fjIShW8KkNw7qUq7sKlEzdSAMyFCMyuV7b9LxwPUTjl2mfMLxj-XfQrNjA2dhtZULF4X90OJJ6g8yNJZvWaU7m5DUo3odBKqrrPabOG-zzEITJkbNrXfWvQwwsM2DEIHUIZEcOt/s400/playoffs+win+ws.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2QbsQzPJZyIo5eENI4pEhI-42D2vg1EjyoiJ0kqUO-U0x2b4Y_h71UBKGqOZHpXMFlp12Aw3RY7uPa45cUH95bA5F7qhiefhGxUixmNXcXH6HDyK3oVbj7hWuk9p579x6t-9-w9Irroqa/s1600/sox+win+ws+boxscore.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="725" data-original-width="1219" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2QbsQzPJZyIo5eENI4pEhI-42D2vg1EjyoiJ0kqUO-U0x2b4Y_h71UBKGqOZHpXMFlp12Aw3RY7uPa45cUH95bA5F7qhiefhGxUixmNXcXH6HDyK3oVbj7hWuk9p579x6t-9-w9Irroqa/s400/sox+win+ws+boxscore.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Boxscore of clinching game</td></tr>
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The previously maligned Hanley Ramirez was named MVP, and gave the Fenway Faithful reason to believe that maybe, just maybe, Red Sox manager Baseball Ruben did know what he was doing!<br />
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<a href="http://store.esellerate.net/a.asp?c=0_SKU95443183708_AFL9289800948&at=WS17"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="560" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi659tmld3ytqt79OnREuwr2HYFMyh3_3LlFiGG3LHQuhiv0Nf7rwZaVETM4TfDYSwNqIBIXB2_RZdTxW0Ov1wlNvQ2_Dk3IMPUB_nO4BU6_5eijeO0d5m913YZagOqcJ-thnIJSvCEo027/s400/ootp.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
If this looks like a game that you might enjoy playing, you're in luck. <a href="http://store.esellerate.net/a.asp?c=0_SKU95443183708_AFL9289800948&at=WS17" target="_blank">Out of the Park Developments has a World Series special</a> going on right now (until November 1st) where you can get the game at 2/3 off the regular price. For just $13.60 you can enjoy countless hours of fun during the winter while you wait for spring training to start.<br />
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<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Hie6c2KndWI/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Hie6c2KndWI?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
Also, for fun, take a look at this MLB Network clip above where OOTP simulated the post-season, and see what their results were.<br />
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Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-22587105262443610642017-10-01T20:24:00.000-06:002017-10-01T20:24:11.752-06:00OOTP End of Season Results<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://store.esellerate.net/a.asp?c=0_SKU95443183708_AFL9289800948" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="620" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB8V7alDZZxwcDXKyIPEk61Rv530gdlCQOHmVN87MwU_MTDdnH-QF4vGrOxzqNNYarTOFzqEe3Ptsk-7oV4QZOb_Ns5yv0Di6PRp3ugorQu8l-oLhKi1njGPb3pA9B0Mr0_uI1i2vOZ4LA/s400/ootp18.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Just finished playing the end of the regular season with my Red Sox OOTP team. As you may remember in my<a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2017/07/virtual-red-sox-in-ootp-at-all-star.html" target="_blank"> last update</a>, I had overcome same injuries and had the Sox in first place at mid-season, but with the Yankees very close behind. The second half wasn't without its challenges.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr2AtRdQDUxNV1VoBTpxCkgKzSx6MRGug8cGwneO6PjYusj1CRd4cJ5tNHkA69r6JNi-MCDofmnnlDdUw9CzEu7qRrRNTHspmeeUfu_zeIuTPmho_NS2LdE7GxtATys-Bf1N5-EuADP5ai/s1600/pablo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="779" data-original-width="1600" height="155" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr2AtRdQDUxNV1VoBTpxCkgKzSx6MRGug8cGwneO6PjYusj1CRd4cJ5tNHkA69r6JNi-MCDofmnnlDdUw9CzEu7qRrRNTHspmeeUfu_zeIuTPmho_NS2LdE7GxtATys-Bf1N5-EuADP5ai/s320/pablo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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With this game imitating real life, Pablo Sandoval was a problem at the hot corner. He had a bad attitude, wouldn't accept a demotion, I was unable to trade him, so I acquired David Freese for 3rd base and released the Panda.<br />
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And then...<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs-kzg4ormvs5LHbPEbg0HrlSkCEoYzZT6bOJ7B6mRLLHQPdAibpY0yATe-5-tl5qI22gBkFhm63wS4nGocPigjeHiAfiNo16SxBVFVErU0TXs4Juk0OqBIgvRcS-i52WYaF1Akf5dHHmY/s1600/freese+injured.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="153" data-original-width="614" height="79" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs-kzg4ormvs5LHbPEbg0HrlSkCEoYzZT6bOJ7B6mRLLHQPdAibpY0yATe-5-tl5qI22gBkFhm63wS4nGocPigjeHiAfiNo16SxBVFVErU0TXs4Juk0OqBIgvRcS-i52WYaF1Akf5dHHmY/s320/freese+injured.jpg" width="320" /> </a></div>
Ugh! Luckily this team got hot right after the all-star break, got some breathing room in the division, and didn't have to make any rash moves. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8VLeriVtRr7sgQv8Oua78mAQ3xp2c-7KdXPJZNdGsOlILirsik8mT9iBBoB_nj52lsVcBVVWJ4Y8Tkn6Bu9hn675l6_72mJi7-UcenP0iHgIyQvSFQPn8X8pzvXmJe0vGrmM-6Ja91ajT/s1600/deadline+standings.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="893" data-original-width="680" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8VLeriVtRr7sgQv8Oua78mAQ3xp2c-7KdXPJZNdGsOlILirsik8mT9iBBoB_nj52lsVcBVVWJ4Y8Tkn6Bu9hn675l6_72mJi7-UcenP0iHgIyQvSFQPn8X8pzvXmJe0vGrmM-6Ja91ajT/s200/deadline+standings.jpg" width="151" /></a></div>
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Chris Sale was a big part of the team's 19-8 record in July and was recognized for it<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIOrQR6x58CR4S6zdhGLineRoUdNUdLviLhC6YD9Li55eMEdIW_wx3aURCQ-q3mzKh3TINl6fRtdLX_Hc_tZs9E9-ygR_dGXj5rI1SjIWATi34iHB2gBQt_C4332YrzwbkxKMHfZZmYnEY/s1600/sale+pitcher+of+the+month.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="242" data-original-width="616" height="124" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIOrQR6x58CR4S6zdhGLineRoUdNUdLviLhC6YD9Li55eMEdIW_wx3aURCQ-q3mzKh3TINl6fRtdLX_Hc_tZs9E9-ygR_dGXj5rI1SjIWATi34iHB2gBQt_C4332YrzwbkxKMHfZZmYnEY/s320/sale+pitcher+of+the+month.jpg" width="320" /></a><br />
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The Red Sox maintained at least a 5 game lead throughout the summer, and the year end standings were very similar to what they were in midseason.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZQxyCDe01ExiYLZFOOXu4vwjff4IDgYRtcyv2PVPgzwm5cQnSxDAhrxaGT3O-fzwRhZW75LtoprUGbY7w1m0smTyNM58H7QJa8bTFDb199ZjZxA7tKHENcCfYR9QgLoVeoG_MsOmDbFub/s1600/end+season+standings.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="731" data-original-width="1600" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZQxyCDe01ExiYLZFOOXu4vwjff4IDgYRtcyv2PVPgzwm5cQnSxDAhrxaGT3O-fzwRhZW75LtoprUGbY7w1m0smTyNM58H7QJa8bTFDb199ZjZxA7tKHENcCfYR9QgLoVeoG_MsOmDbFub/s320/end+season+standings.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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The division winners all mimicked the MLB 2017 season, with the Indians and Dodgers having the best record in the league. </div>
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As far as individual performances, our own Craig Kimbrel had a great season, leading the league in saves, although he didn't perform quite as well as he did in real life. Aaron Judge led the league in strikeouts, while belting 41 home runs. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoaWIIEH-s8U59pvli9V0drCwgfjRtMPkGRopooto5RTSGwiDCW2xqP__hIAOfCUsvkDSRFPf-iJlDByGRzuENg7IdiAqQFegoqR_rLej2hcAnRaeKE_k2079ZTlkpf35pnZjp4L5seH6k/s1600/judge+hr.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAuDOsxlSmHfmq9iHO8yNoYQvTRhqMCkDqmASm7a_FkJZKZj6joByLVQ57xAQRPcgMAkg0ym29DDWbZuDcwBMR18pRyMwNtyeDu9WqpflqsJu9xNywMHGhNxLejkgyGfluXi5xkBKENoP1/s1600/kimbrel+saves.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="113" data-original-width="221" height="102" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAuDOsxlSmHfmq9iHO8yNoYQvTRhqMCkDqmASm7a_FkJZKZj6joByLVQ57xAQRPcgMAkg0ym29DDWbZuDcwBMR18pRyMwNtyeDu9WqpflqsJu9xNywMHGhNxLejkgyGfluXi5xkBKENoP1/s200/kimbrel+saves.jpg" width="200" /></a><img border="0" data-original-height="117" data-original-width="323" height="71" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoaWIIEH-s8U59pvli9V0drCwgfjRtMPkGRopooto5RTSGwiDCW2xqP__hIAOfCUsvkDSRFPf-iJlDByGRzuENg7IdiAqQFegoqR_rLej2hcAnRaeKE_k2079ZTlkpf35pnZjp4L5seH6k/s200/judge+hr.jpg" width="200" /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixrX21dcjoyxnbmqR8mJU46oT9apPuwatTRaiA5AxSTXZ43Z8bkW9-05OZU-g3f9TpZTEsazfIkGq0BPjMSCKmnB3XqZ29FWzrZGTslfwXLF4m69moZTY7RkazmvOGM46o9dlP-FtEF4Qm/s1600/kluber.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="125" data-original-width="329" height="75" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixrX21dcjoyxnbmqR8mJU46oT9apPuwatTRaiA5AxSTXZ43Z8bkW9-05OZU-g3f9TpZTEsazfIkGq0BPjMSCKmnB3XqZ29FWzrZGTslfwXLF4m69moZTY7RkazmvOGM46o9dlP-FtEF4Qm/s200/kluber.jpg" width="200" /> </a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ8AhAoj3Ec36dL4_lnFwQfCFKNhxO0CY83rxCW4LkuyxzSfSnWL4x0ZvlYIDHR7rdC5la1eS6VH1lJ-C31nGap3xnux9sijgJ_NwmzsqKapOHR1-zOKlt4xGOwdGSLE50EXGJaZP3ocUQ/s1600/trout+obp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="109" data-original-width="319" height="66" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ8AhAoj3Ec36dL4_lnFwQfCFKNhxO0CY83rxCW4LkuyxzSfSnWL4x0ZvlYIDHR7rdC5la1eS6VH1lJ-C31nGap3xnux9sijgJ_NwmzsqKapOHR1-zOKlt4xGOwdGSLE50EXGJaZP3ocUQ/s200/trout+obp.jpg" width="200" /></a><br />
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<span style="text-align: left;">Corey Kluber had a fantastic OOTP season, but just like Kimbrel's it wasn't quite as spectacular as what Indians fans witnessed in Ohio. And of course, Mike Trout was as good as he always is.\</span></div>
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On to the playoffs! The Red Sox face the Astros in the LDS, and the winner will take on the winner of the Indians / Wildcard Series. Just like what is happening outside of the game. Wish me luck navigating the Red Sox through the playoffs.... I'll post another update when I finish the season.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGC_qxZliby4jOHJ6iJxP0fbbCHVFqDwnMvIMygh4n3AwlXMJbiK95UL5jXGnzha8znC7lSIMFJ_hje6BgcBhVIH9QQOotaIfrOABJTrhhXc8p7OABrEEFxZ70SLZbvIpAbm2_Eot_5e_t/s1600/playoff+tree.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="1600" height="158" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGC_qxZliby4jOHJ6iJxP0fbbCHVFqDwnMvIMygh4n3AwlXMJbiK95UL5jXGnzha8znC7lSIMFJ_hje6BgcBhVIH9QQOotaIfrOABJTrhhXc8p7OABrEEFxZ70SLZbvIpAbm2_Eot_5e_t/s400/playoff+tree.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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If this sounds like a game you'd like to play, you can get your own copy <a href="http://store.esellerate.net/a.asp?c=0_SKU95443183708_AFL9289800948" target="_blank">here</a></div>
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Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4041779153204868522.post-21339534500089767612017-08-14T18:50:00.002-06:002017-08-14T18:50:28.570-06:00Why the Dodgers won't win the World Series (unless they do)<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://amzn.to/2vWPTUC" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjvZyLeG3LaTMP0MKCzkd8GmXQeJQ3jIEqcGPR5M9wdA9O6kep_-Ad_vIcnYHIdr1dCz5mD4x6vkt-LY9CC_4IZW7kkuZYq6zJU6nIseDXmENHfNXphcOnve5KVoPa1shikukq8DC_alWE/s320/world+series.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://amzn.to/2vWPTUC">Will a champ be crowned at Chavez Ravine again?</a></td></tr>
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At playoff time last year, with the Cubs being favored to win the 2016 Fall Classic, <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2016/10/why-cubs-will-not-win-world-series.html" target="_blank">I wrote a post </a>explaining why you shouldn't bet all your money on them. The logic is simple: There are 10 playoff teams, eight of which get past the wildcard game and into a League Division Series. If all teams were equally matched, they would each have a 1 in 8 (or 12.5%) chance of winning the World Series. But the teams are not completely equally matched. <br />
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Although there is a <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2016/02/did-you-hear-one-about-nfl-parity.html" target="_blank">lot more parity</a> than in football, the best teams typically have win percentages above .600 and the teams that sneak into the playoffs are usually between .525 and .550. So by basic math (or common sense), the best teams have a better chance to win than the weaker ones. But not THAT much more. Last year the Cubs only had a 27% chance of <a href="http://amzn.to/2fH7Q3b" target="_blank">breaking their curse</a>. The Rangers (yes, they were the top seeded American League team, re-iterating my parity point), had the next best odds at 14%. (To see how these probabilities were calculated and the methodology, read the math section at the <a href="http://rubensbaseball.blogspot.ca/2016/07/why-trade-deadline-deals-make-little.html" target="_blank">bottom of this post</a>)<br />
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Anyhow, I've updated my spreadsheet, extrapolating the current standings to end of season to see how it would play out. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers have the best chance of winning it all. But it's "only" 44%. Let's see why you are better off not betting on them:<br />
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To win it all, they need to win the LCS, LDS and World Series.<br />
They have a 77% chance of beating the Diamondbacks/Rockies wildcard game winner in the LDS.<br />
Then if they face the Nationals in the LCS, they have a 72% chance of beating them. (If they get to face the not as strong Cubs, that probability goes up to 85%). Multiplying these probabilities out and taking into account the odds of them playing the Cubs instead of the Nationals, ends up with a 59% chance of them getting into the World Series. Once (and if they make it) there, the odds of winning it all range from 65% vs. the Astros to 88% vs. the improbable Twins. Again, math..... total probability = 44%. <br />
Now don't get me wrong. Gun to your head and forced to bet on one team, this is the one you should put your life savings on. But chances are you will lose that bet. Even way more likely you will lose if you bet on one of the other teams. (Betting on my team will see you kiss your money goodbye 91 times out of 100)<br />
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The full odds:<br />
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Also important to remember.... after I explained why the Cubs wouldn't win the World Series last year, I'm sure you all know who actually won, so anyone heeding my advice does so at their own risk.</div>
<br />Baseball Rubenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07686283543491037841noreply@blogger.com0