July 15, 2017

How 'bout them predictions?

I'm going to sound foolish when someone reads this in 6 months
Before the Red Sox had played more than handful of Spring Training games, I came up with a list of 10 bold predictions for them this year.  Let's see how they look shortly after the midway point of the season.

1. By middle of season Drew Pomeranz will be trusted as much as Porcello
>>> Well, it is the middle of the season.  Pomz is 9-4, 3.60 ERA, 9.8 K/9, Pretty Ricky is 4-11 4.75, 8.2.   I think it's fair to say this is a true statement.

2. We will get at least 10 starts from arms other than the six currently vying for rotation spots (Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright, Rodriguez)*
(*)I wrote the above before the Price news broke.  I hate being right already about too much pitching, but I’ll stick to the general statement that we’ll need more than 10 starts from pitchers other than the six who pitch the most games, whoever they may be.
>>> Our top 5 pitchers in terms of games started have been Porcello, Sale, Pomeranz, Rodriguez and Price.  Number 6 is Stephen Wright. So far, we've already had 11 starts from other guys (Johnson, Kendrick, Fister and Velazquez).  Half way through the season this prediction has already been met.

3. We will have a lights out bullpen by the end of summer – Kelly/Thornburg/Smith handing ball off to Kimbrel will be an opposition’s nightmare if they’re trailing in the 7th.
>>> Our bullpen is currently as close to lights out as we've seen in a long time.  And that's been without Carson Smith or Tyler Thornburg throwing a pitch.  This bullpen is 2nd in the league in ERA, WHIP,  holds, and fewest blown saves and has the fewest losses.  Kelly has been great, but so have Robby Scott, Heath Embree and Matt Barnes. Even Fernando Abad has been a pleasant surprise.  And Kimbrel is definitely an opposition's nightmare as he's been close to perfect all season. Not sure I can give myself a point for this one though, as I was specifically looking at the Kelly/Thornburg/Smith 3 headed monster, and maybe Carson will still pitch this summer but Thornburg won't.

4. Any injury to an outfielder will expose how little organizational depth there is there
>>> No major injuries yet (knock on wood), hopefully we won't have to look for this (nonexistent) depth.

5. Betts will not get as many MVP votes as last season
>>> He's having a very good year again, not quite as good as 2016.  Still time for him to hopefully prove me wrong, though.

6. Swihart will be a big offensive contributor by mid season
>>> I can't ALWAYS be right.

7. Brandon Workman will be on the post-season roster
>>> Well, he just got added to the roster with Kelly going on the DL this morning, his 2nd stint at Fenway this year.  October is still a few months away, let's see what happens.

8. Sandy Leon won’t
>>> He's not exactly setting the league on fire, hitting about as poorly as Vazquez, with slightly more home run power.  But there aren't a lot of other options, so at this point I'm guessing he will be.

9. Mid season there will be talk about winning 100 games
>>> They had 50 wins at the all-star break! 50x2=100!  But the all star break is a little after the midpoint of the season, and they're actually on about a 91 win pace.  Honestly, I haven't heard any credible analysts talk about 100 wins.

10. We won’t
>>> For the 71st year in a row. (1946)

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