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| Yes, this is a selfie, in case you wondered what "Baseball Ruben" looked like |
A quick pre-emptive note:
I realize how bad some of these will look at the end of the year. I’m
sure I have some last place teams that will end up making the playoffs, and I
have some division winners who won’t contend.
That’s ok. It happens to all the forecasters every year. (here are last year's ESPN forecasters predictions. None of the 31 got all the division winners. Six picked the Astros or Royals - neither of which made the playoffs - to win the World Series. Almost half (15) had either the Indians or Cubs missing the playoffs. Somehow only FOUR of their 31 "experts" managed to correctly guess the Dodgers would win their division, Exactly one had Cleveland going to the Fall Classic.... and picked the Giants to beat them there)
My goal is to beat the default predictions of (1) using same
records as last year and (2) assume everyone goes 81-81. Sounds easy, but it’s tougher than you
think. A lot of “expert” predictions end
up having the average margin of error being bigger than if they had just picked
everyone to have a .500 record. I
welcome my readers to provide their predictions or links to where they are
posted, and we can compare results at season’s end.
Projected final standings and comments: (playoff teams
bolded)
AL East:
Boston 93-69
Toronto 87-75
Tampa 80-82
New York 79-83
Baltimore 74-88
Tampa Bay will be better than expected - challenging for second place in the division is not out of the question - even though most forecasts have them pegged for last. I think in spite of making the playoffs last season, Baltimore is the worst
team in this division. The Yankees have
some promising young players, but still a year or two away, and their front
office will be smart enough (for a change) to not overpay for a midseason
upgrade, and instead will stick with the youngsters through some growing pains.
AL Central:
Cleveland 94-68
Detroit 88-74
Minnesota 81-81
Kansas City 78-84
Chicago 67-97
Don’t count Detroit out just yet. After losing 100+ games last year, the Twins
may be one of the most improved teams in the league.
AL West:
Houston 90-72
Seattle 89-73
Texas 83-79
Oakland 72-90
Los Angeles 69-93
We will see a great pennant race between Houston and
Seattle. The loser will be battling
Detroit and Toronto for the wildcard spots.
NL East:
Washington
97-65
New York 84-78
Atlanta 79-83
Philadelphia 74-88
Miami 70-92
The Mets won’t seriously contend although they’ll try for
a wildcard. Atlanta is improving quickly,
the Nats will be the best team in the senior circuit.
NL Central:
Chicago 96-66
St. Louis 86-76
Pittsburgh 84-78
Cincinnati 68-94
Milwaukee 65-97
Not many surprises here
NL West:
San Francisco
91-71
Colorado 87-75
Los Angeles
87-75
Arizona 80-82
San Diego 60-102
Best and most well balanced division in the league.
Colorado will make the playoffs, the Diamondbacks will be much improved. The
Dodgers will need to fight to sneak into the postseason
My ultimate prediction: World Series - Houston over Washington
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| Actually, a picture of Mike Scott's no-hitter/playoff clincher. But those uniforms, tho! (from AstrosDaily.com) |
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